It’s hard to know whether to cheer slower consumer credit growth in the world’s largest economy or interpret it as a bad omen.

On one hand, slower nominal spending reflects both lower goods prices and consumer retrenchment, with the latter conducive to cooler inflation going forward. On the other hand, the apparent slowdown may suggest consumers are increasingly concerned about the future.

Americans’ credit card balances grew $7.2 billion in December, the latest update from the Fed showed. That was markedly less than a downwardly revised $15.3 billion the prior month, and counted as the smallest monthly increase since August of 2021. (Note: October’s revolving credit increase was revised higher, to $12.3 billion).

The total increase since inflation took off in April of 2021 is now approaching a quarter trillion.

The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, so notwithstanding relief in durables and other goods, the data reflects broadly higher prices. But that doesn’t change the fact that America’s variable-rate debt burden is growing in an environment when credit card rates are approaching 20%.

Data from TransUnion showed credit card balances hit a record at the end of last year, when bankcard balances reached $930 billion, up 18.5% from Q4 2021. HELOC originations in Q3 rose 41% from the end of 2021, suggesting homeowners were increasingly tempted to tap the windfall from the pandemic housing boom.

“Whether it’s Gen Z consumers opening credit cards, homeowners taking out home equity lines of credit or consumers continuing to turn to unsecured personal loans, more and more borrowers are looking to a range of credit products… amidst an economic environment of rising interest rates and high inflation,” the TransUnion report said.

According to a Gallup poll released on Wednesday, half of Americans said they were worse off now than they were a year ago. That’s a very high figure.

“Since Gallup first asked this question in 1976, it has been rare for half or more of Americans to say they are worse off,” the color accompanying the release said. “The only other times this occurred was during the Great Recession era in 2008 and 2009.”

Commenting further on Q4’s credit trends, Michele Raneri, TransUnion’s VP of US research and consulting, said that, “Whether it’s shopping for a new car or buying eggs in the grocery store, consumers continue to be impacted in ways big and small by both high inflation and the interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve.”

If you ask Raneri, the Fed will likely keep hiking “for at least a few more months.”