Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds To 25%

Goldman was already on the low end of the range when it comes to recession odds for the US economy in 2023. The bank saw just a 35% subjective probability of a downturn over the next 12 months compared to the 65% median of professional forecasters. Goldman's more optimistic projection relied, in part anyway, on assumptions about a resilient consumer given the likelihood of higher disposable income as inflation wanes. In addition, the bank has repeatedly suggested that market participants are m