I have an affinity for tragicomedy. Probably because my own life blends elements of the tragic and the absurd.
That serves me well as a narrator. A good biographer of socioeconomic trends traffics in juxtapositions likely to resonate with readers as especially stark. Capitalism in the 21st century is a story of egregious economic contrast, conducive to fatalistic sighs and despairing chuckles.
On Wednesday, a UK think tank said middle-income households “face a hit to their personal disposable income” of up to 13% in the financial year 2022-23. “We project that seven million UK households (one in four) will be unable to meet in full their planned energy and food bills from their post-tax income in 2023-24, up from around one in five in 2022-23,” the National Institute of Economic and Social Research wrote, in a report dated February 8. The blow to middle-income households could reach £4,000 this year.
If you’re inclined to suggest £4,000 isn’t a lot of money, you’re right. But you’re also wrong, and you may be Rishi Sunak who, while volunteering at a shelter in December, asked a homeless man, “Do you work in business?” (“No, I’m homeless,” the man told his prime minister. “I’m actually a homeless person.”)
According to the latest ONS data, real disposable income in the UK contracted for a fourth straight quarter in Q3.
Although the chart doesn’t appear especially striking at first glance, note that it’s exceedingly rare for real disposable income to fall four straight quarters. It happened around the original Brexit vote and also in 2010-2011, but before that, you have to go back to 1962 to find a comparable stretch.
NIESR actually has a brighter outlook on the overall economy than the BoE, which sees a seven-quarter downturn. Although the think tank said it’ll “certainly feel like a recession” to many in the UK, growth will probably eke out a gain this year. The title of the report was “Recession avoided, but prospects remain bleak for households.”
By contrast, the prospects aren’t “bleak” at all for UK stocks, which hit a record high Wednesday thanks to a second straight session of gains for BP, which, like its supermajor peers, enjoyed a massive windfall during the energy crisis that bedeviled Main Street.
BP’s shares notched an 8% gain on Tuesday, the largest earnings-day rally in at least 10 years after the company raised its dividend and topped up buybacks to the tune of $2.75 billion. BP made almost $28 billion in profits last year.
Irony atop irony is the notion that the FTSE’s climb back to record highs was aided and abetted by the beleaguered pound, which was no boon to everyday people struggling with the ripple effect of higher import bills.
Another irony: Sterling volatility was previously faulted for holding back UK stocks in the years since the Brexit vote.
In any case, it’s a difficult time to be a middle- or low-income earner in the UK. If, however, you “work in business” or own stock in an oil major, things are going pretty well.





Elections in Britain are in early 2024 correct? Sunak has a very low probablity of leading the Tories to victory and retaining the Prime Minister’s position. Given the situation he inherited and the tone deaf aspect of the Conservative Party and Sunak these days, the best the party can hope for is not to be wiped out. Sunak’s remit at this point is to limit losses in Parliment. Post election I would expect the new government to figure out a way to have a free trade deal with the EU- possibly by joining the EFTA or some other method.
The NHS is in a horrible crisis. People are literally dying because they can not get timely healthcare. It makes me question whether I am really in favor of a nationalized healthcare system in the US.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nhs-uk-national-health-service-strike-costs-11675693883?st=46kgt46mbr7mcg9&reflink=article_copyURL_share
UK/NHS should not be seen as the benchmark for a nationalized healthcare system. There are many countries (e.g.in continental Europe) with nationalized/semi nationalized healthcare systems that do function properly (with universal access) and are relatively cost effective.
Several factors are at play that cause the mess at the NHS.
This not at all a scientific thought, but another post I read this AM was that the UK was the only major EU economy likely to shrink this year. If so, it sure makes it seem like Brexit was officially a very bad idea. Seven million HH will probably tell you privately that you can’t eat sovereignty fueled by false pride.