Whenever the “petroyuan” comes up (which is quite often these days), I’m always keen to
Author: therealheisenberg
What The US CPI Report Means For Fed Policy
Like every other monthly inflation update out of the world’s largest economy, Tuesday’s US CPI
Crucial US Inflation Report Could’ve Been Worse
US consumer prices rose in January by more than expected compared to the same month
‘Cynical,’ ‘Negative’ Small Businesses Still Struggling With Inflation, Labor
America’s small business owners are “cynical” and “negative.” That was one unfortunate takeaway from the
Wanted: Selloff Catalyst In Lieu Of Profit Recession
To some market participants, it probably feels like the earnings recession call (the “profit reckoning”)
Kolanovic Calls Markets ‘Complacent,’ Cuts Risk Again
Markets are too complacent. That was the message on Monday from JPMorgan analysts led by
The Simple Reason Slower Demand Can Be Inflationary
There are two key pillars to the Fed’s inflation-fighting campaign, and they’re related. First and
What’s Really Behind The Yield Curve Inversions?
Every day, someone, somewhere cites the yield curve (pick a curve, any curve) to argue
‘Disconnected From Reality’ In A Nefarious Bear Market
Speculative bear market rallies are nefarious beasts. Not only are they dangerous, they also have
Did Everything Change Earlier This Month?
“It will likely take a few months for the true underlying trends to emerge.” That’s
Extraterrestrial Inflation Phenomena
X-Files references were pervasive on Monday. “If the truth is out there, it certainly is
Finding The North Star In Oz
R-star is going to “become an important market theme in the months ahead.” So said
Investors Pull Billions From US Stock Funds Despite Rally
Although US equities were off to a roaring start in 2023, it was apparent during
Macro Dinner Whispers
Headed into the new week, there was a “building hot inflation whisper.” Speculation around an
Stocks Under A ‘Micro’scope
It won’t surprise anyone to learn that stocks have been more macro-driven than average over
‘Peak Goldilocks’: Why The Party May Be Over
It’s “tempting,” one bank says, to believe “peak Goldilocks” has come and gone. The combination
Chasing The Elusive Target
For all the talk about how the “disinflation process has begun” (to quote Jerome Powell),
Why Markets Could Be A Fireworks Show Next Week
The range of possible policy outcomes is expanding in the US. I assume this is
Hawks And Doves On The Carousel Of Madness
It’s been a week since the combination of a blockbuster US jobs report and a
Americans ‘With Large Stock Holdings’ Thanked For Sentiment Boost
American consumer attitudes were “mixed” in early February, according to the preliminary vintage of this
Biden Planning Major New China Investment Curbs
Under intense pressure from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, the Biden administration is
Recession: It Wouldn’t Take Much. Or Would It?
Notwithstanding what, thanks to a Teflon labor market, is a bulletproof facade, the US economy
60/40’s Revenge
Last year was a veritable disaster for pretty much any version of the vaunted 60/40
Ukraine Says Russian Missiles Kissed NATO Skies. Romania Denies
Russia lobbed missiles into Ukraine on Friday and attacked the country with drones which, sadly,
Disinflation… If You Can Keep It
Party over! US mortgage rates are rising again. I’m just joking. Well, rates did rise
The Good And Bad News Behind America’s Jobs Puzzle
Layoff announcements continue to pile up across the US economy. Over the last 24 hours
Albert Edwards Sees Another Recession Canary
It won’t surprise you to learn that SocGen’s Albert Edwards is skeptical this week. Skeptical
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