Needless to say, this has the potential to be an interesting week, so you better buckle up.
That’s what we said on Sunday evening in our week ahead and preview and by God, this week didn’t disappoint.
The government shutdown was “resolved” if your definition of “resolved” involves making a bad situation immeasurably worse by kicking the can closer to the debt limit and raising the already high stakes.
If all you care about is stocks, there’s good news. The S&P was up for a fourth consecutive week and the 9th week in 10:
It’s been in overbought territory for 17 straight sessions:
The curve flattened for a second consecutive day and if you want a little perspective, here’s the month with the BoJ trimming JGB purchases news and the BBG China headline marked for reference:
Trump went to Davos, posse in tow, and between them, they managed to start a global currency war during a week that featured a very sensitive BoJ meeting and an equally precarious ECB pow wow. The very last thing Kuroda and Draghi needed was for the U.S. Treasury Secretary to jawbone the already slumping dollar lower the second he touched down in Davos, but that’s what he did and the fallout was something to behold.
The dollar has now suffered its worst streak of weekly declines since 2010, with DXY down for a sixth week and BBDXY for a seventh.
Here’s an annotated chart that shows you how frantic things got from Wednesday through Friday:
And here’s EURUSD:
As for USDJPY, well that was even more interesting. It started with the BoJ tweaking their inflation language. Hours later, Kuroda attempted to jawbone the yen back weaker, only to ultimately fail. Then came Mnuchin on Wednesday. Then came Trump on Thursday. Finally, on Friday, Kuroda made the “mistake” of sounding upbeat on inflation while speaking in Davos which catalyzed more unwanted yen strength and so, just hours later, the BoJ had to walk that back, by “clarifying” that Kuroda’s comments didn’t mean the bank is ready to revise its inflation outlook. And yes, all of that is just as absurd as it sounds and it underscores the extent to which everyone is on pins and needles. Here’s the annotated chart:
Meanwhile, the pound had its best week against the dollar in four months and is sitting at a fresh post-Brexit high:
The onshore yuan had its best week in five months and has now strengthened for seven straight weeks:
Emerging market equities are on an insane run, MSCI’s index rose for an 11th day on Friday, but one thing worth noting is that the Cboe EM ETF volatility index rose for four straight days before pulling back to end the week:
Helping EM stocks is oil, which is of course at a three-year high:
Gold’s near a 17-month high, but you already know that, so let’s zoom in on the last two days so you can see how it’s traded with USDJPY on the headline hockey:
Finally, because we’re reasonably sure everyone has tuned out at this point, have a look at how mainland and Hong Kong Shares fared this week:
Oh, and if you’re wondering whether Trump is coming back from Davos a changed man, the answer is definitely “no”…
DACA has been made increasingly difficult by the fact that Cryin’ Chuck Schumer took such a beating over the shutdown that he is unable to act on immigration!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 26, 2018