Volatility Collapses (Again) As Investors Cling To Goldilocks Outlook On Brexit Wednesday

It’s quiet out there. Well, except for that whole UK officially leaving the EU thing. As outlined earlier this morning, Theresa May will make the UK’s split with the EU official on Wednesday, sealing the economic fate (literally, as they’ll be a hand delivered letter involved) of the British people and very possibly relegating the…

It’s Falling Apart: Reflation Trade Shrivels Up And Dies As Markets Sour On Risk

Well, the dollar is under pressure on Monday, just as we said it would be on Sunday evening. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as traders digested the failure of the GOP health care bill on Friday. This is the index’s eighth drop in the last nine days, and as Bloomberg notes this morning, “further losses of…

Mind The Cross-Atlantic “Gaps”: Your Week Ahead Preview

Earlier, we talked a bit about Donald Trump’s waning political capital and the extent to which rising policy uncertainty in the US and declining political risk in Europe may ultimately lead to a narrowing of rate differentials, painting a bearish picture for the dollar. Meanwhile, the yen is likely to remain bid as its fortunes are…

“Trump’s Political Capital Is Getting Consumed”: One Simple Trade Idea For The Week Ahead

Think about the events that transpired over the last two weeks. Now think about them in terms of the following two frameworks for how things could have gone. Fed comes out hawkish, guns ablazin’, Geert Wilders puts up a better-than-expected showing in the Dutch elections, the GOP health care bill moves forward Fed comes out…

It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”

It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter about the US/Trump having “won” at the weekend gathering in Germany. In this context, “winning” means successfully getting the “resist all forms of protectionism” language removed from the communique. Remember, in Trump/Navarro make-believe land, free trade is a bad thing, so telling everyone…

Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot

Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we head into the weekend, oil is trying to eek out a gain on the week, after a surprise inventory draw (reported first by API on Tuesday and then confirmed a day later by the weekly EIA print) shored up a…