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Featured

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026

Markets

Oil, Dammit!

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

$1 Trillion Is The Floor (California Dreamin’)

July 13, 2020July 13, 2020

“Stimulus Talks at Standstill With GOP Yet to Agree on a Proposal” read one feature

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12 Comments on $1 Trillion Is The Floor (California Dreamin’)

‘The Worse COVID Gets, The Better The Markets Do’ (A Misleading Story)

July 13, 2020July 13, 2020

On Monday, Reuters ran an extremely rudimentary piece carrying what I can only describe as

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5 Comments on ‘The Worse COVID Gets, The Better The Markets Do’ (A Misleading Story)

Who Cares Where You Are In The Capital Structure If The Fed Doesn’t Allow Bankruptcies?

July 13, 2020July 13, 2020

Like many irritable observers, I lost my sense of humor with the Hertz saga in

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4 Comments on Who Cares Where You Are In The Capital Structure If The Fed Doesn’t Allow Bankruptcies?

Hedge Fund Performance Anxiety And The Evergreen Case For Equity Upside

July 13, 2020July 13, 2020

For weeks (and weeks), those arguing that the rally in equities had further to run

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2 Comments on Hedge Fund Performance Anxiety And The Evergreen Case For Equity Upside

Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz Incur Xi’s Wrath, While China Ponders Expansion Of Yuan’s Global Role

July 13, 2020July 13, 2020

Just another day in the constantly worsening clash of the titans.

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China In The Spotlight Amid Rising Tensions, Crucial Data, Burgeoning Stock Bubble

July 12, 2020July 12, 2020

Let us hope that Peter Navarro’s comments to Fox News on Sunday aren’t indicative of

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15 Comments on China In The Spotlight Amid Rising Tensions, Crucial Data, Burgeoning Stock Bubble

‘The Strength To Go On’

July 12, 2020July 12, 2020

Both rates and equities are waking up to the reality of surging virus cases in

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11 Comments on ‘The Strength To Go On’

False Dawns And Summer Doldrums

July 12, 2020July 13, 2020

Market participants sleepily adrift or otherwise mired in the summer doldrums will be compelled to

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The Final Leap: America’s Overlapping Crises May Make Fed Stock Buying Inevitable

July 12, 2020July 12, 2020

“If you don’t think that the mechanical processes that have been worked out over the

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32 Comments on The Final Leap: America’s Overlapping Crises May Make Fed Stock Buying Inevitable

‘I Feel Compelled To Respond’: Robert Mueller Hits Back After Stone Commutation

July 11, 2020

“We made every decision in all our cases, based solely on the facts and in accordance with the rule of law”.

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9 Comments on ‘I Feel Compelled To Respond’: Robert Mueller Hits Back After Stone Commutation

‘Rationally Being Irrational’ (And The Second Half Playbook)

July 11, 2020July 11, 2020

“…why would anyone expect markets to connect with macro?”

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2 Comments on ‘Rationally Being Irrational’ (And The Second Half Playbook)

Deutsche’s Kocic On ‘5 Major Crises’ And ‘The Big Whipsaw Of 2020’

July 11, 2020July 12, 2020

“Markets are not behaving in a conventional way, in any historical, traditional or logical metric

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4 Comments on Deutsche’s Kocic On ‘5 Major Crises’ And ‘The Big Whipsaw Of 2020’

Goldman: In Downside, S&P 500 Profits Won’t Recover From Pandemic Until 2023

July 11, 2020July 11, 2020

Don’t worry, the base case still looks like a “V”.

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5 Comments on Goldman: In Downside, S&P 500 Profits Won’t Recover From Pandemic Until 2023

Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Talks Pandemic, Stocks, Bonds, Election In Sweeping Interview

July 10, 2020July 11, 2020

“The entire professional investor universe is, in my mind, basically a momentum trader themselves”.

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3 Comments on Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Talks Pandemic, Stocks, Bonds, Election In Sweeping Interview

Lacy Hunt On Pandemic: Prepare For ‘Years’ Of Low Inflation, High Unemployment, Lackluster Growth

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

It’s going to be a while before things get back to any semblance of normal.

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12 Comments on Lacy Hunt On Pandemic: Prepare For ‘Years’ Of Low Inflation, High Unemployment, Lackluster Growth

It Was The ‘Biggest Deal Ever Made.’ Now Trump Doesn’t Even Think About It

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

C’est la vie.

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And Now, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Political Decay

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

“This kind of political decay leads either to slowly increasing levels of corruption, or to populist reactions to perceived elite manipulation”.

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36 Comments on And Now, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Political Decay

Looking Ahead To ‘The Poor Bank Redemption’

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

Is bank underperformance “a signal of no economic hope” and something “sinister”?

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3 Comments on Looking Ahead To ‘The Poor Bank Redemption’

Zeitgeist Unchanged

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

The times may be a changin’, but the post-pandemic world has served to entrench familiar market dynamics.

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4 Comments on Zeitgeist Unchanged

From ‘Healthy Bull’ To ‘Mad Cow Meat Grinder’: China Engineers Selloff After $1 Trillion Run

July 10, 2020July 10, 2020

“…and investors exclaimed ‘a bull market is coming!'”

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1 Comment on From ‘Healthy Bull’ To ‘Mad Cow Meat Grinder’: China Engineers Selloff After $1 Trillion Run

Hooray For Jay: Tsunami Of Inflows Into High-Grade Bonds Hits 13 Weeks

July 9, 2020July 9, 2020

To reiterate what is now a weekly refrain…

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2 Comments on Hooray For Jay: Tsunami Of Inflows Into High-Grade Bonds Hits 13 Weeks

Is The Market Sleepwalking Into A Summer Growth Scare?

July 9, 2020July 10, 2020

…even as these long, summer days feel sleepy and aimless.

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3 Comments on Is The Market Sleepwalking Into A Summer Growth Scare?

You’re Looking At The Wrong Unemployment Data, One Bank Warns. The ‘Real Story’ Is Here…

July 9, 2020July 9, 2020

The official number “simply does not reflect the reality of the US labor market”. 

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5 Comments on You’re Looking At The Wrong Unemployment Data, One Bank Warns. The ‘Real Story’ Is Here…

Supreme Court Deals Trump One Loss, One Narrow Win In Historic Fight Over Taxes, Financial Records

July 9, 2020October 12, 2021

“The President is neither absolutely immune from state criminal subpoenas seeking his private papers nor entitled to a heightened standard of need”.

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4 Comments on Supreme Court Deals Trump One Loss, One Narrow Win In Historic Fight Over Taxes, Financial Records

Albert Edwards Recalls Wise Words Of Late Boss. Warns On Deflation, Ponzi Schemes

July 9, 2020

“The deflationary reality will mean even more monetary largesse is coming”.

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1 Comment on Albert Edwards Recalls Wise Words Of Late Boss. Warns On Deflation, Ponzi Schemes

Jobless Claims Better Than Expected, But Stalled Re-Opening Push Looms Large

July 9, 2020July 9, 2020

Congress will debate the contents of an assumed next round of virus relief later this month.

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2 Comments on Jobless Claims Better Than Expected, But Stalled Re-Opening Push Looms Large

The Real Show (I’m Feeling Invincible Right Now’)

July 9, 2020July 9, 2020

Gold, tech, and Chinese stocks.

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1 Comment on The Real Show (I’m Feeling Invincible Right Now’)

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • John3D on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
  • derek on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
  • hackpoet on Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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