US Jobs Report, ECB Rate Cut Take Center Stage
It’s a big week for macro. Fed officials and traders “flummoxed” by the US economy’s
Teflon Con
I was in a red state Costco when Donald Trump became a convicted felon on
US Stock Inflows Continue. Blue-Chip Debt Sales Near $800 Billion
If you were wondering — and I know everyone was edge of their seats —
Felonious Trump
Donald Trump’s guilty. Just in general, but also in the more narrow context of falsifying
Inflation Report Has Some Decimals
Not that anyone cared — caught up as the American media was Friday in a
The Regime Is Dead, Long Live The Regime
I’ve written voluminously on the growing impact of ballooning AUM for derivative income products. The
Is An Equities Vol Regime Shift In The Offing?
Don’t look now, but there’s a regime shift afoot in the equities index vol space.
Marginally Constructive
US economic growth was slower than initially reported in the first quarter, closely-watched revisions released
Pending Home Sales Plunge As Buyers Suddenly Balk
Pending home sales in the US plummeted in April, a Thursday update showed. Contract signings
Tariffs, Taxes And Fiscal Policy
I think I’ve made it abundantly clear by now what I think of US election
Reprieve Ends For US Homebuyers As Mortgage Rates Rise
A three-week rate reprieve for aspiring US homeowners just came to an end. After flirting
Wall Street Ignores The Only US Election Risks That Matter
On May 28, Goldman published a note called “The US Election — Debating the Asset
You Got Hammack’d
Listen, I don’t know the first thing about Beth Hammack. No matter how many times
Exploiting The Chaos
It’s not easy to get foreign policy right. The world’s a very messy place, after
I Was Told There Would Be Rate Cuts
We’ve come a long way since late November. Six whole months, in fact. Half a
Xi ‘Arrests’ Already-Jailed Tiananmen Activist
If social media posts “with seditious intent” were grounds for arrest and detention in the
US Property Prices Score More Records On Marquee Index
“Another all-time high.” That was the overarching message from Tuesday’s update on America’s marquee gauge
Fed Suggests More Talking To Solve Communication Problem
I regularly lament the Fed’s penchant for over-communication. Every week, market participants are compelled to
Cold War Headlines
China’s upset with the West. Or the West is upset with China. Both. It’s both.
The Tents Are On Fire
Familiar scenes out of Gaza depicted dazed children sorting through blackened detritus and women wailing
Antonyms Of Hope
Of what use is a “binding” order with no mechanism for enforcement? Not much. Such
Hope Seen Floating In Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure
Core price growth on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure probably downshifted to 0.2% last month.
Did Yellen and Powell Forget Piketty?
When it comes to the notion that Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell engaged in a
Inconclusive
I doubt anyone came away from this week wiser. By Friday afternoon in the US,
Goldman Gives Up On July Fed Cut
Goldman’s seen enough. On Friday, David Mericle threw in the towel on the bank’s call
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