US economic growth was slower than initially reported in the first quarter, closely-watched revisions released on Thursday showed.
Headline growth was 1.3% in Q1, according to the second tally. That was in line with estimates.
The advance read, you’ll recall, was 1.6%, which represented a material undershoot versus the original consensus (2.5%).
At this juncture, it’s probably fair to say downward revisions are welcome. Equities are in a “bad news is good news” regime vis-à-vis macro releases and Fed expectations.
Traders were particularly keen for any sign that the consumption impulse is waning, consumer spending being one culprit for stubborn inflation and such. The BEA obliged: The personal consumption component was revised lower to 2.0% from 2.5% as initially reported.
In an incrementally constructive (where that means wholly meaningless) development, the core price index was revised slightly lower to 3.6%.
The originally-reported 3.7% turned some heads and raised some eyebrows in the advance release. Although a re-acceleration was expected, the scope of the upturn was steeper than economists anticipated. If you think Thursday’s one-tenth downward revision (and a similarly trivial revision to the deflator) represents a notable development, you’re a STIR trader. (Thoughts and prayers.)
I should mention GDI. It was 1.5% for Q1, leaving virtually no gap with the GDP headline. A multi-quarter disparity between GDP and GDI disappeared last quarter.
The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure the NBER utilizes when making determinations about recession and cycle dating, rose 1.4% in Q1, down markedly from Q4, but still reasonably healthy.
Again, it’s probably fair to call the downshift a welcome development — or at least in the context of a Fed that needs a slowdown to corral inflation.
Final sales to domestic purchasers — another key line item in the GDP release — was revised down to 2.5%, the slowest since Q2 of last year.
Meanwhile, initial claims rose 3,000 to 219,000 in the week to May 25. Consensus expected 217,000. Recall that claims were coming off the largest two-week decline since September.
The prior week was NFP survey week, which is to say Thursday’s claims uptick won’t temper expectations for a solid employment report, but it does perhaps underscore the generally dovish message from the releases.





FWIW, the Atlanta GDP Now number has shown itself to be basically worthless over the last year or so.