‘No Limits’
Just days after using the Munich Security Conference as a forum to deride the White
Why The Risk Of Profit Letdowns Has Never Been Higher
Never has the risk of downside earnings surprises from corporate America been greater. Or at
What Walmart And Home Depot Said About The Economy
Nearly two years on from the last round of stimulus checks, the US consumer has
Head-Spinning Regime Shift Feeds US Stock Fund Exodus
It’s always an open question whether flows follow performance or vice versa, but the prospect
US Home Sales Fall 12th Month. Prices Near Milestone Drop
Recently awakened animal spirits aren’t showing up in existing home sales just yet. A week
Putin Gives No Ground In Key Speech As War Enters Second Year
“They were the ones who started the war,” Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, during a marathon
Upbeat US PMIs Come With Ominous Warning For Fed
Economic activity in the US picked up markedly in early February, preliminary PMIs for this
Bears Pile On As Calls For Selloff Reach Fever Pitch
The vast majority of bank clients are confused about the resilience of stocks in 2023,
Europe Picks Up Steam. Goldman Raises ECB Call
The European economy, largely left for dead late last year, continued to perform in February,
High-Altitude Hallucinations
Late last month, in “Plane English,” I expressed something akin to exhaustion with market participants’
‘Death Zones’ And The Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Narrative
In his latest note, currently making the proverbial rounds, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson channeled Jon
Fed Success May Go Through Shrinking Corporate Profits
The US may be headed for an earnings recession+, but compared to the rest of
Where To Now For Corporate Profits?
Analysts have rapidly cut profit forecasts for corporate America, even as the breadth of negative
Wartime Presidents
On Sunday evening, the White House’s public schedule for Joe Biden suggested he’d be in
Suddenly, People Are Asking The Bigger Macro Question
The “structural shift” discussion as it relates to long run rates in a new macro
Three-Card Monte
In the new week, markets will be treated to more key economic data impacted by
Stocks March To Their Own Drum
Headed into this year, a generic narrative about bullish equity sentiment went something like this.
In Munich, China Scolds US, Harris Decries Putin
48 hours prior to the convening of the Munich Security Conference, I offered a gentle
Forever Inflation?
I argued repeatedly last year that inflation might become stochastic in 2023 and beyond. Much
How Extreme Is 2023’s Bullish Sentiment Shift?
Notwithstanding tentative signs of exhaustion over the past two weeks, the story of 2023 in
The Mystery Of Oblivious Stocks
Recalcitrant stocks are “baffling” Wall Street, declared a Bloomberg headline. It was an accurate, if
Dollars, Deficits, Debt And Wars
If it’s deficit and debt doomsaying you’re after, I’m not your guy. Regular readers are
Are HELOCs Making The Fed’s Job Harder?
When you spend nearly two years minting scores of overnight millionaires, you shouldn’t be terribly
A ‘Pure Markets Guy’ Explains The Fed’s Inability To Tighten
I’ve spent quite a bit of time lately on the r-star discussion. It’s important, and
‘No Landing’ May Presage Stock Selloff, Late-Year Recession
The likely result of a “no landing” macro environment in the first half of 2023
The Fed Is Angry. And The Dollar Is Back
The Fed’s mission is “very much unaccomplished.” That’s according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett, but more
US Card Debt Hits New Record Near $1 Trillion
Americans were the proud owners of a record 564 million credit card accounts at the
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