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Featured

F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Markets

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

‘No Landing’ Becomes Consensus

February 16, 2023February 17, 2023

If you ask Loretta Mester, demand across the US economy isn’t weakening as much as

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16 Comments on ‘No Landing’ Becomes Consensus

‘Expect More, Not Less Geopolitical Tension’

February 16, 2023February 16, 2023

News out of Eastern Europe was predictably foreboding on Thursday. Kyiv says it’s being forced

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1 Comment on ‘Expect More, Not Less Geopolitical Tension’

Cash For Haters

February 16, 2023February 16, 2023

If you “hate” stocks, you’ll love cash. Admittedly, this story feels a bit tired, but

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1 Comment on Cash For Haters

Doves Singed By Blazing US Producer Prices

February 16, 2023February 17, 2023

So, about that “pipeline disinflation” story. Markets were treated to yet another hot data release

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2 Comments on Doves Singed By Blazing US Producer Prices

Avenging Fallen Comrades

February 16, 2023February 17, 2023

China’s foreign ministry isn’t sure the US possesses the “sincerity and capability to properly handle

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5 Comments on Avenging Fallen Comrades

Defiant Stocks ‘Taunt’ Fed By Ignoring Dramatic Rates Repricing

February 15, 2023March 5, 2023

Over the past week, quite a bit of digital ink was spilled editorializing around the

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6 Comments on Defiant Stocks ‘Taunt’ Fed By Ignoring Dramatic Rates Repricing

The Market Is Becoming ‘More Vulnerable,’ One Bank Warns

February 15, 2023February 15, 2023

Nobody would blame you for suggesting market sentiment outran the fundamentals during the opening weeks

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Leave a Comment on The Market Is Becoming ‘More Vulnerable,’ One Bank Warns

Marko Kolanovic Warns Of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ From 0DTE Option Craze

February 15, 2023February 16, 2023

Since rising to the top of JPMorgan’s research ranks, Marko Kolanovic’s role has felt more

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4 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Warns Of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ From 0DTE Option Craze

Macro Tension And 0DTE: Why Stocks Are ‘A Mess’

February 15, 2023February 15, 2023

Equities are an “untradeable mess.” That’s apparent to anyone trying to trade them. The maddening

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Leave a Comment on Macro Tension And 0DTE: Why Stocks Are ‘A Mess’

Animal Spirits Spotted In Homebuilder Sentiment

February 15, 2023February 16, 2023

The animal spirits are stirring. Hot on the heels of data showing the biggest month-to-month

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3 Comments on Animal Spirits Spotted In Homebuilder Sentiment

Americans Go On Biggest Shopping Spree Since ‘Stimmy’

February 15, 2023February 16, 2023

US retail sales rose far more than expected last month, key data out Wednesday showed.

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4 Comments on Americans Go On Biggest Shopping Spree Since ‘Stimmy’

Russia Commits 97% Of Military To Ukraine As Fund Managers Worry

February 15, 2023February 15, 2023

If you were wondering just how pot committed the Kremlin is to Vladimir Putin’s imperialist

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1 Comment on Russia Commits 97% Of Military To Ukraine As Fund Managers Worry

UK Inflation Still Running Double-Digits, But Silver Linings Seen

February 15, 2023February 15, 2023

The good news is, UK inflation ran at the slowest pace in four months in

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1 Comment on UK Inflation Still Running Double-Digits, But Silver Linings Seen

What $850 Billion Said About The Rally, The Macro And The Fed

February 14, 2023February 15, 2023

Two-thirds of the nearly 300 panelists who participated in a closely-watched survey of fund managers

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6 Comments on What $850 Billion Said About The Rally, The Macro And The Fed

Only You Can Prevent Wildfires

February 14, 2023February 15, 2023

Markets appeared to come around Tuesday to what I’d describe as the “neutral” character of

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2 Comments on Only You Can Prevent Wildfires

China’s Middle East Pivot Is Hard To Ignore

February 14, 2023February 14, 2023

Whenever the “petroyuan” comes up (which is quite often these days), I’m always keen to

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Leave a Comment on China’s Middle East Pivot Is Hard To Ignore

What The US CPI Report Means For Fed Policy

February 14, 2023February 14, 2023

Like every other monthly inflation update out of the world’s largest economy, Tuesday’s US CPI

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Crucial US Inflation Report Could’ve Been Worse

February 14, 2023February 19, 2023

US consumer prices rose in January by more than expected compared to the same month

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5 Comments on Crucial US Inflation Report Could’ve Been Worse

‘Cynical,’ ‘Negative’ Small Businesses Still Struggling With Inflation, Labor

February 14, 2023February 15, 2023

America’s small business owners are “cynical” and “negative.” That was one unfortunate takeaway from the

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Leave a Comment on ‘Cynical,’ ‘Negative’ Small Businesses Still Struggling With Inflation, Labor

Wanted: Selloff Catalyst In Lieu Of Profit Recession

February 13, 2023February 13, 2023

To some market participants, it probably feels like the earnings recession call (the “profit reckoning”)

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Leave a Comment on Wanted: Selloff Catalyst In Lieu Of Profit Recession

Kolanovic Calls Markets ‘Complacent,’ Cuts Risk Again

February 13, 2023February 14, 2023

Markets are too complacent. That was the message on Monday from JPMorgan analysts led by

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Leave a Comment on Kolanovic Calls Markets ‘Complacent,’ Cuts Risk Again

The Simple Reason Slower Demand Can Be Inflationary

February 13, 2023February 14, 2023

There are two key pillars to the Fed’s inflation-fighting campaign, and they’re related. First and

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What’s Really Behind The Yield Curve Inversions?

February 13, 2023February 13, 2023

Every day, someone, somewhere cites the yield curve (pick a curve, any curve) to argue

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Leave a Comment on What’s Really Behind The Yield Curve Inversions?

‘Disconnected From Reality’ In A Nefarious Bear Market

February 13, 2023March 5, 2023

Speculative bear market rallies are nefarious beasts. Not only are they dangerous, they also have

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3 Comments on ‘Disconnected From Reality’ In A Nefarious Bear Market

Did Everything Change Earlier This Month?

February 13, 2023February 13, 2023

“It will likely take a few months for the true underlying trends to emerge.” That’s

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Leave a Comment on Did Everything Change Earlier This Month?

Extraterrestrial Inflation Phenomena

February 13, 2023February 14, 2023

X-Files references were pervasive on Monday. “If the truth is out there, it certainly is

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5 Comments on Extraterrestrial Inflation Phenomena

Finding The North Star In Oz

February 12, 2023February 17, 2023

R-star is going to “become an important market theme in the months ahead.” So said

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12 Comments on Finding The North Star In Oz

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • John3D on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • therealheisenberg on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • Mountain Economist on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • whitebearcapital on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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