Traders Eye Big Week As Powell, US Jobs, Central Banks Loom
It's a big week for the US economy.
Crucial jobs data will be a verdict not just on February's labor market trends, but also on January's. Was 2023's first jobs report the anomalous product of warm weather and statistical quirks? Or was it the real deal -- a testament to the notion that the Fed's efforts to cool inflation are destined to be frustrated by persistently hot wage growth tied to a shortage of workers and robust demand for services?
Ostensibly, February's NFP report will provide som
The Fed should up by 50 bps not because it’s a material change from 25 but because they desperately need to regain control of the narrative. (And since they don’t seem to use QT to run down the massive balance sheet that GFC + Covid built)
“What would Volcker do?”
Data from China is commonly felt to be “inaccurate”, whereas policy makers in the US seem to feel our data is the real deal. In my mind that is an unreliable conclusion, for two reasons, neither conspiratorial. First, there are many sources of analytical nfo in all areas of our economy, each arising from different techniques and models employed to study what is already essentially unknowable. Secondly, our national leadership, even in the Supreme Court, sadly, is badly compromised by the idea that what’s best for the US is only what’s best for the party in power. Our political environment today is just one big quest to bring down the “other side,” even when the result generally turns out to be bad for both sides. For example, cutting back food aid for 30 million of our poorest, especially the children, to win an argument is truly unconscionable and one more mark of shame for our society.
While agreeing with your comment’s ending I beg to differ about your initial point on data accuracy (potentially tangentially related to the article’s big week of data theme).
You put “inaccurate” in quotes but truly data from China is managed to an extent not seen since the USSR. Yes it’s hard for such a large entity to coerce every fact but the Great Firewall, Social Score Apps, and Jack Ma are evidence that the facts must fit their narrative.
The US enjoys a multitude of voices and the many data points this week will help highlight an outlier and drive a conversation – in US culture it is heroic to have an independent voice (and be right).
I agree soft sciences aren’t “knowable” in the same way but let’s not fall down that slippery slope to assume no data or effort is worthwhile.