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Featured

F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Markets

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Stocks At ‘High Risk’ In March, Wilson Warns

February 27, 2023March 5, 2023

March is a “high risk” month for US equities. That’s according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike

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1 Comment on Stocks At ‘High Risk’ In March, Wilson Warns

How Much Have CTA And Options Flows Mattered Recently?

February 27, 2023February 28, 2023

How much did systematic re-leveraging matter for the rebound in US equities from October through

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What Really Counts For Stocks Near-Term

February 27, 2023February 27, 2023

Back on January 30, I noted that the 12-week decline for the dollar was essentially

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Why Stocks May Be Doubly Dangerous

February 26, 2023February 26, 2023

I’ve spent quite a bit of time opining on both the re-rating in US equities

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Larry Summers Was Right. Most Can’t Accept It

February 26, 2023February 27, 2023

In March of 2021, when the Biden administration was on the verge of sending Americans

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16 Comments on Larry Summers Was Right. Most Can’t Accept It

Tran·si·to·ry

February 26, 2023February 27, 2023

The usual first-of-the-month top-tier US data is split between two weeks in March. This week

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Wishing Upon A Star

February 25, 2023February 25, 2023

If you read the weekly (it’s in your inbox, and it’s also here), you probably

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11 Comments on Wishing Upon A Star

As American As Apple Pie And Billionaires

February 25, 2023March 4, 2023

I saw someone describe Warren Buffett’s annual letter as a “must-read” today. That sort of

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11 Comments on As American As Apple Pie And Billionaires

Stock Bulls Don Blinders As Rates Explode

February 25, 2023February 27, 2023

Even after the worst week for US equities since early December, it’d be hard to

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3 Comments on Stock Bulls Don Blinders As Rates Explode

‘Furious Invincibility,’ Furious Inflation

February 24, 2023February 24, 2023

We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts, and cold. We

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3 Comments on ‘Furious Invincibility,’ Furious Inflation

US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Surges In Nightmare For Fed

February 24, 2023March 4, 2023

Surprise! Americans spent more than economists anticipated last month, and inflation ran hotter than expected.

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16 Comments on US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Surges In Nightmare For Fed

New US Home Sales Soar As Prices Plunge Most Ever

February 24, 2023February 26, 2023

New US home sales surged in January and supply shrank, according to volatile data released

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1 Comment on New US Home Sales Soar As Prices Plunge Most Ever

Junk Exodus!

February 24, 2023February 24, 2023

If those calling for recession in the US economy are correct, it’s likely that high

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1 Comment on Junk Exodus!

The ‘Great Irony’ Of The Inflationary 2020s

February 24, 2023February 25, 2023

“War, protectionism, de-globalization… higher inflation, higher rates,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote. In the latest installment

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China Releases Ukraine Peace Plan After Envoy’s Moscow Visit

February 23, 2023February 25, 2023

Beijing has a plan. Just a day on from Wang Yi’s overtly cordial face-to-face meeting

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5 Comments on China Releases Ukraine Peace Plan After Envoy’s Moscow Visit

What 0DTEs Are Doing To Markets

February 23, 2023February 23, 2023

When I talk about “brave new markets,” I’m generally referring to market microstructure in general,

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4 Comments on What 0DTEs Are Doing To Markets

Why McElligott Doesn’t Fear ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ — Yet

February 23, 2023March 5, 2023

Last week, one of the most recognizable names on the sell-side weighed in on the

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5 Comments on Why McElligott Doesn’t Fear ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ — Yet

Liquidity, Earnings And One Bear’s Big Disconnect

February 23, 2023February 24, 2023

Over the past week (or two or three) market participants latched onto a narrative about

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Meanwhile, Inside The Housing Bubble…

February 23, 2023February 23, 2023

How large was the correction in the US housing market during 2022’s rapid run-up in

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Cruel US GDP Revisions Are Cause For Angst

February 23, 2023February 23, 2023

Historically, I haven’t spent a lot of time covering GDP revisions for the US economy,

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1 Comment on Cruel US GDP Revisions Are Cause For Angst

Albert Edwards Echoes Wilson: Stocks In ‘Death Zone’

February 23, 2023February 24, 2023

SocGen’s Albert Edwards agrees with Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson: US stocks are indeed in the

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2 Comments on Albert Edwards Echoes Wilson: Stocks In ‘Death Zone’

Dark Days

February 23, 2023February 23, 2023

“Providing material support to Russia or assistance with any kind of systemic sanctions evasion would

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9 Comments on Dark Days

Overhyped Fed Minutes Fail To Impress

February 22, 2023February 23, 2023

“Almost all” Fed officials backed a step-down to 25bps rate hike increments at this month’s

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2 Comments on Overhyped Fed Minutes Fail To Impress

Zuckerberg To Cut ‘Thousands’ More Jobs: Report

February 22, 2023February 23, 2023

Mark Zuckerberg’s “year of efficiency” is proceeding apace, apparently. Meta is gearing up for more

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3 Comments on Zuckerberg To Cut ‘Thousands’ More Jobs: Report

Comrades In Moscow

February 22, 2023

Wang Yi got his meeting with Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. Or perhaps it’s more accurate

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4 Comments on Comrades In Moscow

The Search For Peak Rates Continues

February 22, 2023February 22, 2023

Have “oblivious” US equities finally woken up to what’s going on in the rates complex

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1 Comment on The Search For Peak Rates Continues

What The Fed Whisperer Is Reading This Week

February 22, 2023February 23, 2023

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: In my opinion, it’s not ideal

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5 Comments on What The Fed Whisperer Is Reading This Week

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • whitebearcapital on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • locke on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • hackpoet on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • libero on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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