Get the best daily market and macroeconomic commentary anywhere for less than $7 per month.
Already have an account? log in
Fed ‘Pause’ Hopes Get Boost From PPI Drop
US producer prices unexpectedly fell last month, data released on Wednesday showed.
Separate figures, released concurrently, suggested January's spending spree moderated in line with forecasts, even as a key underlying aggregate unexpectedly rose.
Taken together, the figures underscored the difficulty of getting a "clean" read on a constantly shifting, rapidly evolving macro conjuncture, but given the proximity of the March Fed meeting and the market's suspicion that the turmoil in the US bank
Well, well. Prudence would suggest a pause for the FOMC. That doesn’t mean they have to stop hiking. Just slow down. If things get worse, yes a longer pause, an end to QT, or rate cuts are in order. The FOMC should keep their options open.
Agree 100% but your call for prudence might be too rational for the hawks inside the FOMC and their desire for “credibility,” that said I do lean for a pause after today, the risk calculus has clearly changed for the US and global economies.
credit spreads are wider today. I can see that in municipal bonds and corporate vs. us treasury bonds. almost all the indicators that are real time are screaming the economy is slowing down at a fairly brisk clip. if you want to look in the rear view mirror focus on core service inflation, owners equivalent rent etc. if you want to see the economy in real time look elsewhere….
Big sigh, all these chickens looking at the sky. This is far from a “bad” time. When the liquor store AND the Dairy Queen in town go out of business, then it’s bad.
“Keep calm and carry on”
Just closed a frozen dessert shop in a very popular tourist town. Only a year ago people getting off the cruise ships had more money to spend- this year it seems they spent all they had just to get on the boat. Anecdotal, I know…