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Featured

F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Markets

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Inflation Is Embedded In The US Services Sector

March 3, 2023March 5, 2023

Friday’s hotly-anticipated read on the state of the US services sector was good, but it

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1 Comment on Inflation Is Embedded In The US Services Sector

$70 Billion Runs To Cash Amid Macro, Policy Ambiguity

March 3, 2023March 3, 2023

Cash is king. For once, that’s not just a tired cliché to describe risk aversion.

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Leave a Comment on $70 Billion Runs To Cash Amid Macro, Policy Ambiguity

‘The Secular Script’ For An Inflationary Epoch

March 3, 2023March 9, 2023

“An era of extraordinary monetary policy is over,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett declared, dusting off a

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16 Comments on ‘The Secular Script’ For An Inflationary Epoch

Credit Monitor: Outflows For Junk, Record Supply, Bad Month For IG

March 2, 2023March 2, 2023

US junk funds bled another $2.3 billion during the latest weekly reporting period, data released

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1 Comment on Credit Monitor: Outflows For Junk, Record Supply, Bad Month For IG

US Home Prices Fall First Time In 11 Years. But…

March 2, 2023March 4, 2023

It was inevitable, but now it’s official. Sort of. US home prices are falling on

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3 Comments on US Home Prices Fall First Time In 11 Years. But…

Stargazers

March 2, 2023March 9, 2023

We may be living through the early stages of a “historically unique period.” In the

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2 Comments on Stargazers

Say No To Chop, Yes To Cash

March 2, 2023March 2, 2023

Who wants to deal with it? If you’re not asking yourself that question vis-à-vis the

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2 Comments on Say No To Chop, Yes To Cash

Key US Labor Cost Gauge Triples In Ominous Revision

March 2, 2023March 2, 2023

Unit labor costs in the US rose at nearly triple the initially reported rate during

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US Takes Important Step Towards Leaving 30 Million People Hungry

March 2, 2023March 8, 2023

Late last year, when US lawmakers decided, at the last minute, to fund the government

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Could The Inflation Crisis Dissolve The Euro?

March 2, 2023March 3, 2023

To exactly nobody’s surprise other than the economists whose forecasts again proved misguided, inflation in

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2 Comments on Could The Inflation Crisis Dissolve The Euro?

Determined Hawks, Ambivalent Bulls

March 1, 2023March 2, 2023

Markets felt all at once tense and disinterested following what it was fair to call

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3 Comments on Determined Hawks, Ambivalent Bulls

‘Good For Main Street,’ Bad For Financial Assets

March 1, 2023March 1, 2023

Let the crocodile tears flow freely. The macro regime has shifted in favor of everyday

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Disappearing Disinflation

March 1, 2023March 2, 2023

This week’s only marquee data release out of the world’s largest economy was amenable to

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11 Comments on Disappearing Disinflation

Trapped Underwater: America’s Looming Used Car Crisis

March 1, 2023March 1, 2023

“Is the car free?” wondered a Tennessee resident, who leased a used Volkswagen Passat from

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8 Comments on Trapped Underwater: America’s Looming Used Car Crisis

Mortgage Apps At New 28-Year Low In Sad ‘Nobody’s Market’

March 1, 2023March 2, 2023

US mortgage rates rose to the highest since November last week, putting further pressure on

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China’s Recovery Proceeding Well, China Says

March 1, 2023March 2, 2023

The leadership in Beijing was taken aback both by how rapidly COVID spread across the

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3 Comments on China’s Recovery Proceeding Well, China Says

The State Of Play For Markets As March Dawns

February 28, 2023February 28, 2023

Although key PMI readings out of the US this week do have the potential to

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In Markets, Rationality Doesn’t Always Pay

February 28, 2023March 6, 2023

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson spends a considerable amount of time in his weeklies addressing “pushback”

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8 Comments on In Markets, Rationality Doesn’t Always Pay

Managing American Apathy Is Tricky Dynamic For Putin, Xi

February 28, 2023February 28, 2023

Vladimir Putin is having an easier time wearing down voters in Western democracies than he

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Americans (Still) Feel A Recession Coming On

February 28, 2023March 1, 2023

US consumers have a “super bad feeling” (to quote Elon Musk) about the short-term outlook

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6 Comments on Americans (Still) Feel A Recession Coming On

US Home Price Growth Slows To 29-Month Low

February 28, 2023March 1, 2023

US home prices posted the smallest annual gain in 29 months in December, data released

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7 Comments on US Home Price Growth Slows To 29-Month Low

Mortgages Will Soon Be Collateralized By Amazon Stock: WSJ

February 28, 2023February 28, 2023

If you work for Amazon and you have some stock but not a home, there’s

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2 Comments on Mortgages Will Soon Be Collateralized By Amazon Stock: WSJ

No End Seen To ECB Hikes As Data Mocks Philip Lane

February 28, 2023March 1, 2023

Last year, inflation in Europe was largely a function of the war and its impact

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5 Comments on No End Seen To ECB Hikes As Data Mocks Philip Lane

‘Misaligned’ Equities Ignore ‘Negative Externalities,’ Geopolitical Firestorm

February 27, 2023February 27, 2023

US equities re-rated too far, too fast out of the gate in 2023. Where and

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Leave a Comment on ‘Misaligned’ Equities Ignore ‘Negative Externalities,’ Geopolitical Firestorm

Yellen In Kyiv

February 27, 2023February 28, 2023

A week ago, Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Joe Biden to Ukraine. A day later, Sergei Lavrov welcomed

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3 Comments on Yellen In Kyiv

Make Or Break

February 27, 2023February 27, 2023

The Fed desperately needs a break from hot US economic data. Monday’s large upside surprise

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4 Comments on Make Or Break

US Pending Home Sales Boom In Latest Threat To Fed

February 27, 2023February 28, 2023

If pending home sales are a leading indicator, the long run of monthly declines in

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3 Comments on US Pending Home Sales Boom In Latest Threat To Fed

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Tim McCreight on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • dayjob on It’s All Relative
  • WMD on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Around, Around We Go

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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