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Bank Drama Hits GDP Forecasts As Goldman Cuts US Outlook
What a difference a few weeks makes.
This time last month, market participants were convinced the US economy was running so hot that the Fed might need to hike rates beyond 6% to have any hope of moderating demand such that growth would come in below-trend in 2023.
Fast forward to mid-March and shell-shocked investors are reeling from a trio of successive US bank failures, including the second-largest collapse in American history and pondering the highly disconcerting prospect of a disorderly
Just being realistic, we have to actually make a mess and understand it, preferably one that is measurable, before we can prove that we need to extricate ourselves and develop a plan of action that’s likely to succeed. Then we must exercise the patience and will to push collectively to a measurable, positive outcome.
Clarity is good. The recent banking failures were a godsend that righted our perspectives of what we’re facing. Suddenly, the Fed doesn’t seem very likely to raise rates anymore. That’s likely a realistic outcome, and not subject to substantial conjecture.