Inflation is persistent.

Perhaps you noticed. That’s the thing about inflation: Irrespective of its original, proximate cause, it has a way of spreading out and embedding itself across the economy. It’s an invasive species. Once it finds its way into wage-setting and consumer psychology, it’s very difficult to dislodge.

That’s hardly new information. Although the last two years helped policymakers “understand how little they understand” (as Jerome Powell put it in Sintra last year) about inflation, one thing everyone knew was that inflationary dynamics, once they’re set in motion, can be very hard to short circuit, just as ridding an economy of a deflationary mindset can be vexingly difficult (think Japan).

We should’ve been more vigilant in 2021 — present company included. But, water under the bridge I guess.

With the above in mind, note that a Thursday update on a New York Fed measure of estimated inflation persistence “implied a significant upward revision,” according to researchers, whose model now stands at 4.9% for January.

Without delving too far into the mind-numbingly tedious explanation offered by Fed staff, the uptick is the result of the same high profile revisions and hot January readings that dominated headlines last month and spooked policymakers.

The figure on the right above is particularly notable. “The pickup in the MCT in the last two months has been driven in roughly equal parts by the core goods and core services ex-housing components,” the New York Fed said.

As a reminder you probably don’t need: Goods had been a disinflationary tailwind for the Fed, and Powell is laser-focused on services ex-housing. Housing is now the only sector that’s cooperating.

“Relative to their pre-pandemic averages, core goods trend is about 0.9pp higher and core services ex-housing is 1.1 pp higher,” the same Fed post said, before summarizing: “To sum up, the PCE price data released for January have shown a broad-based resilience in inflation persistence.”

So, it’s not coming down. Inflation isn’t moderating anymore. The progress has stopped.

If you’re wondering whether you should care about this or, more to the point, whether the Fed cares, the answer is that WSJ “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos took time out of his day to highlight it for more than a quarter million social media followers.