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SVB On Brink Of Collapse
The bottom fell out entirely for SVB on Friday, when a planned capital raise reportedly failed.
Jus
I’ll be surprised if this remains limited to a tech startup cash flow problem. The recent attractiveness of money market funds relative to demand deposits has the potential to broadly drive the same net result (deposit shrinkage), and that’s basically a function of “too far too fast” policy driving the shift in incentives for how cash is managed. Hence the sell-off in regionals, I suppose, and the predictions that the Fed has found their “thing-that-they-broke”.
Funny, I’d recently been conversing with others how Fidelity had started displaying “Now offering 4.2% !! ” in grocery-store style exploding caption bubbles when you logged in.
If the winddown of a couple regional banks are all it takes to get the Fed to back off its inflation fight, then perhaps markets will see this as bad news that is really good news, or “badlygood”?
John, I like your insights, but I don’t think fetch is going to happen.
Crypto bank, tech bank – don’t worry – this time it’s different.
Mclane: Come to the coast – we’ll have a few laughs.
What happened the last time rates shot up this quickly in the early 80s? Did a bunch of regional banks fail?
The savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s was the failure of 32% savings and loan associations in the United States from 1986 to 1995.
Maybe, but right now it’s “doubleplusungood,” in Orwellian Newspeak.
I’m baffled at the “stay calm” and “government bailout” options as they seem to be opposite of “homo-rationalis” and game theory. Waiting for someone else to do “the right thing” (looking at you Putin and Trump)… and the moral hazard of rewarding a mismanaged bank.
I get that it has contagion and hurts plenty of innocents (which is why I’m guessing the FDIC intervened rather than leave it to the same incompetent/bad actors) but the firesale of assets was a huge clue they were torching money to “solve” the problem (their own greed of getting a percent or two on eighty billion).
https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-chief-risk-officer/