Infallible or not, the yield curve is a cliché as a recession indicator. Indeed, those
Category: economy
Data Suggests US Inflation Firmly Entrenched. Sorry.
US labor costs increased more than expected in Q1, according to crucial quarterly compensation figures
Europe Walks ‘Along The Rim’ Of Stagflation
Top-tier macro updates out of Europe reflected varying degrees of economic resilience, even as stagflation
Markets Handed Stagflationary GDP Report
The US economy grew less briskly than expected in Q1, the advance read on first
US Pending Home Sales Plunge On Lack Of Available Houses
Existing US home sales may be set to fall during the spring buying season. Or
Banks Face New Era Of Run Risk In Always-Connected World
Maybe it’s a dearth of other bad market news to monetize, maybe it’s a genuine
The Recession That Never Came
Another day, another reminder that a US recession is just around the corner. Allegedly. I’m
New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record
New home sales in the US soared almost 10% last month, as lower mortgage rates
Surprise! US Home Prices Are Rising Again
US home prices unexpectedly rose in February, backward-looking data released on Tuesday showed. I’m not
A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed
Fed officials will be in their pre-meeting communications moratorium this week, which is just as
‘Locking In’ Inflation: Revenge Of The Theories
Are central banks “locking in” above-target inflation? You’d like to think not. And policymakers would
US Business Surveys Show No Slowdown, Inflation Heating Up Again
So much for the “slowdown” narrative. You might’ve assumed the second-largest bank failure in US
‘Partly Booming’ European Services Puts ECB In ‘Sticky’ Situation
Activity in Europe’s services sector is picking up rapidly. Whether that’s a good thing depends
‘The IMF Is Wrong. The Ice Age Is Dead’: Albert Edwards
In February of 2020, on the eve of the pandemic, SocGen’s Albert Edwards made a
US Home Prices Fall In ‘Unique Market’
Existing home prices in the US are falling. Or were falling. And for real this
Slowdown Ahoy? Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Point To Deceleration
US jobless claims are getting interesting again, but only mildly so, and I hesitate to
UK’s Economic Nightmare Rolls On
The UK’s inflation problem isn’t getting better. “These figures reaffirm exactly why we must continue
The Ongoing Investor Perils Of Recency Bias
Why was last year’s historic 60/40 drawdown so shocking to so many investors, professional, amateur
Chinese Economy Remains A Riddle
The Chinese economy expanded 4.5% during the first quarter, according to what I’ll generously call
In Macro Limbo, Your Guess Is As Good As Anyone’s
The data calendar in the US is relatively sparse in the new week, which could
Inflation Is Independent Of Money And Policy, PhDs Remind You
“Inflation, as a phenomenon, is independent of central banks and money. It can easily occur
Americans Fly Blind On Inflation. Unmoved By Bank Drama
If US consumers are worried about banking stress, it’s not showing up in surveyed sentiment,
Ambiguous Retail Sales Suggest American Consumers In Limbo
US retail sales fell more than expected in March, data released on Friday showed, adding
Fed Gets More Disinflation Evidence With Cool PPI, Rising Jobless Claims
In another constructive development for the disinflation narrative in the US, producer prices across the
ECB Notices Greedflation. Albert Edwards Offers Another Warning
Earlier this week, I suggested the purported wage-price spiral which many argue is driving inflation
Fed, Markets Get Good News In Relatively Benign CPI Release
Headline inflation in the US rose less than expected in March, while core price growth
Latent Recession Risk At 50% Underlines ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Worries
Recession risks are elevated. I suppose that goes without saying. If it does go without
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