US home prices unexpectedly rose in February, backward-looking data released on Tuesday showed.

I’m not sure “unexpectedly” is the best word. I wasn’t taken aback by the numbers and some of you won’t be either, but to the collection of economists and experts who venture guesses for a living, the gains were a surprise.

FHFA’s home price index rose 0.5% in February from January against expectations for 0.1% drop. The range of estimates from a dozen forecasters was -0.4% to 0.1%.

It was the largest monthly gain since May of last year, around the time median existing home prices peaked.

Nataliya Polkovnichenko, the supervisory economist in FHFA’s research division, attributed what she described as a “slight” gain to the drop in mortgage rates from 2022’s highs and “historically low housing inventory.”

Gains were most pronounced in the East South Central region, where prices rose 2.3% MoM. On a YoY basis, the FHFA gauge rose 4%.

Meanwhile, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index also rose in February on a MoM basis. It was the first month-to-month increase in eight months, suggesting that even as the YoY comparison flatlined, the market was gathering momentum headed into the spring home-buying season.

The national index rose 2.05% YoY in February, Tuesday’s data showed. That was the smallest gain in more than a decade, and down from January’s 3.75% 12-month increase. That gauge also rose on a MoM basis, though.

Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, flagged “stark regional differences.” Prices rose almost 8% YoY in the Southeast, while the 4.2% decline seen in the West was a continuation of the recent trend.

It’s the same story over and over again: Americans will take any opportunity to borrow and spend. The Fed will either quash it, or live with the consequences.