In an NBC News poll released last week, 70% said Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection. 60% said Donald Trump, newly-indicted, should drop out of the 2024 race.
Two people who apparently don’t care are Biden and Trump. And you can hardly blame them. After all, America’s bitter, vengeful partisans are determined to stay trapped in a cycle of poisonous identity politics, which means aggregate polling suggesting the country is eager to extricate itself from an echo chamber of insanity actually just reflects the partisan divide.
Trump is fundraising aggressively off the first of what could be several indictments, and his escalating legal troubles have (predictably) relegated Ron DeSantis to below-the-fold coverage.
On March 19, DeSantis’s PredictIt odds for securing the GOP nomination peaked at 44%. Since Trump’s criminal arrest, DeSantis’s perceived chances of prevailing in a primary with America’s most famous alleged felon, have plummeted. A recent Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump with a 32-point advantage over DeSantis when GOP voters were asked who would make a “stronger leader.” Trump had a 14-point lead over DeSantis in Republican responses to a question on who “cares” more about voters.
Between the GOP’s cult-like preference for Trump in the primary (it almost feels fear-driven, as though no one wants to be on the record opposing him just in case he ends up back in power) and an apparent dearth of viable Biden alternatives on the Democratic side, the country is condemned to a 2020 rerun. (Because 2020 went so well.)
On Tuesday, Biden made it official. “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America. And we still are,” Biden said, formally announcing his bid for a second term. In a short video featuring snippets of the January 6 Capitol riots, Biden decried “MAGA extremists.” “Every generation of Americans has faced a moment when they’ve had to defend democracy,” he said. “That’s why I’m running for re-election.”
I’ve called a Biden-Trump rematch a “popularity contest for the unpopular.” Biden’s approval rating is just 37%, according to Pew, and Trump is (easily) the most divisive figure in the modern history of American politics.
It’s possible Trump could be indicted in Georgia over the summer for attempting to strong-arm state officials in the aftermath of the last election. He’s also being investigated by a second special counsel in connection with a plot to overthrow the US government. It’s laughable that he’s still the GOP frontrunner, but it’s also telling.
The juxtaposition between the investigations into Trump and his commanding lead over DeSantis speaks to the underlying problem in America: A shockingly high percentage of voters and a disconcertingly large number of sitting lawmakers are on board with establishing a soft version of autocratic governance in the US. Trump is, almost avowedly, an authoritarian. Many of his enablers, both past and present, understand that. But they enable him anyway.
As I wrote on election night in 2020, and on any number of occasions since, Biden’s faith in America is misplaced. The country proves as much day in and day out. Assuming the country still has a “soul,” it’s more mean-spirited than it was decades ago. There’s no civility left and no shared sense of purpose. America is, increasingly, two countries. Trump is still president of one, and Biden is president of the other.
Paradoxically in that context, Americans in aggregate do “agree” (note the scare quotes) on one thing: The 2024 election shouldn’t be a contest between Biden and Trump.
“At this stage, 2024 is shaping up to be a sequel of the 2020 election,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC poll mentioned here at the outset with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said. “Sequels are frequently hits at the box office, but apparently not at the ballot box.” McInturff agreed: “It’s clear that people do not want a Biden-Trump rematch.”
I’m not so sure. Notwithstanding Biden’s early efforts to rekindle bipartisanship, the Biden-Trump matchup is now synonymous with societal division and the culture wars. Unfortunately, many Americans can no longer conceive of themselves outside of that conflict. Identity politics has replaced America’s national identity.
I disagree on one aspect of this, 2024 can’t be a repeat of 2020. Simply for the sake that Trump isn’t in power and can’t enable a violent mob to attack the Capitol. If he loses, it’ll be the polar opposite of 2020. Saving for the fact that Trump will figure out how to con his cult into giving him more money off of it.
Running counter to the notion that Americans don’t want the paradoxical rematch is the dependency of the choice of candidate for Democrats on the choice of candidate for the Republicans. As long as Trump is the likely Republican candidate Democrats are hard-pressed to want someone other than Biden as their candidate. After all Biden has already proven his ability to beat Trump, succeeded in returning the country to a state of greater normalcy compared to the previous four years, managed to get substantial legislation favored by the Democrats passed despite a slim legislative majority, and still appears as the most viable moderate Democrat despite his age. Add to this Biden’s further salability because of his years of legislative/executive branch experience and foreign policy chops–both not easy-to-replicate credentials. If Trump were not in the picture the Democrats might choose a different candidate–but if pigs flew they’d be birds.
The Democrats’ dilemma, in my opinion, is Kamala. If Biden demurs, the VP is the natural candidate for President. Deposing her will turn off a vital Dem constituency. Yet she is unelectable, for many reasons, in my opinion.
What the Dems need is for Trump to win to Rep primary and be the Rep candidate. They need Merrick Garland to slow-walk his prosecution of Trump. Which, coincidentally or not, seems to be going on.
Pretty much agree with this POV. I think many impassioned Dems do not (cannot? refuse to?) see the sitting VEEP as an objective electoral risk. The weak spots of the modern Democratic party have always been a need to fall in love with candidates and placing too much emphasis on symbols.
If the choice is between these 2, we could potentially have the lowest voter turnout in modern history, as a sense of hopelessness prevails. All the Dems need is for Trump to be the nominee. Then voters’ main motivation will be to vote against the candidate they are nauseated by the most. Then whoever the Dem nominee is almost may not really matter. I’m guessing that nearly half of Repub voters are really wanting to move on to someone other than Trump…but that’s not enough to keep him from winning primaries and becoming the nominee.
Agree wholeheartedly about this country’s lack of “shared purpose.” I’m no historian or super patriot, but it is what I thought made this country great — welcoming all, sharing costs (rural electrification, highways) if not the benefits, and a sense that the enemy is most definitely not us. Now it has all devolved into a blame game without principles, scoring points in pointless political contests everyone detests but whose outcomes could prove as existential as anything else we’ve witnessed since WWII. So pull on your voting caps and choose between the familiar poison blow fish or the familiar bland blanc mange, just when we could use some real revolutionary leadership. The new American dream apparently means just keeping our secrets safe, our trains on the rails, our kids safe from mass shooters and our recreational drugs free from fentanyl, all admittedly low bars that seem incredibly out of reach.
An 81-year-old Bernie Sanders is the main risk for the Democratic Party.
Yes. However, the Dems have Superdelegates who can thwart the populist passions of primary voters and anoint the nominee. That’s why nomination has been inaccessible to Sanders despite primary voters “feelin’ the Bern”. The Repubs are held hostage by the populist passions of their primary voters. Therefore, Trump’s nomination looks inevitable.
Sanders endorsed Biden and won’t run himself.
The Democrats could do a lot worse than Biden. Looking at the polling (granted it doesn’t mean much at this point), but without Biden, you’ve got Harris, Clinton, and Sanders at the top of the list. Those are three people who are virtually guaranteed to lose no matter who the Republican opponent is. Democrats need to buy more time for better candidates to emerge in 2028, and as long as Joe is healthy (I know that’s a big if), he’s the best shot for Dems to keep the presidency. At the end of the day, Biden is a suitable stand-in for the anti-Trump Republican and independent voters.
On the flip side, Desantis is basically turning himself into a Ted Cruz/Scott Walker mashup. I was worried he’d be a lock 6 months ago, but he has poor political intuition and Trump is going to mop the floor with him and all the other candidates who apparently are just hoping Trump is incapacitated and can no longer run since they have no shot at the nomination otherwise.