New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record

New home sales in the US soared almost 10% last month, as lower mortgage rates and builder incentives emboldened anxious buyers.

The 683,000 annual rate far outpaced consensus, which was looking for a comparatively tepid 632,000 pace.

The range of estimates, from five-dozen economists, was 550,000 to 708,000.

February’s pace was revised lower, January’s higher. March’s gain was the largest since August and the sales rate was the briskest in a year.

The figures, which are volatile, came on the heels of data showing existing home sales slipped in March following a blockbuster gain the prior month.

It’s possible buyers were attracted to new construction amid a dearth of existing supply. Toll Brothers and other publicly-traded builders are offering a bevy of incentives, including 30-year fixed rates as low as 4.99%.

Prices rose last month. The median new home sold for $449,800, up 3.2% YoY and nearly 4% higher than February, albeit still well off the peak in October, when median prices nearly touched half a million.

The average price for a new, cookie-cutter box in America rose sharply, and at $562,400, was back near record highs. (Suffice to say “average” American families are going to need those builder incentives if they want to secure a hastily-constructed, fiber cement “modern farm house.”)

Months’ supply dwindled to 7.6 in March, suggesting last month was the tightest market in a year. Mortgage rates dropped for five consecutive weeks following the implosion of SVB. That probably helped lure buyers too.

Earlier Tuesday, an update on America’s two marque price indexes showed both rose on a MoM basis in February. Pending home sales figures for March, due later this week, will give market participants an idea about what to expect from existing home sales going forward.


 

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One thought on “New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record

  1. So what are the inflation adjusted home prices now? If inflation was 6 % in the last 12 months it means real home prices are down about 16% year over year. Its not so surprising nominal prices would stabilize or bounce, especially when mortgage rates dropped recently. My bet is nominal prices won’t change that much over the next 5 years, translating to an inflation adjusted decline.

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