Ambiguous Retail Sales Suggest American Consumers In Limbo

US retail sales fell more than expected in March, data released on Friday showed, adding another piece to a growing body of evidence which suggests the world’s largest economy is finally beginning to cool.

Nominal spending fell 1% last month, double the expected drop. The range of estimates from more than five-dozen economists who ventured a guess was -1.5% to 0.4%.

February’s 0.4% decline was revised to show a smaller dip.

Sales have now fallen in four of the last five months. January’s much-discussed surge, the largest since the last round of stimulus checks, now stands out as an anomaly.

Just five of 13 categories posted an increase in March, the same as February. This time last year, nominal spending was increasing in 11 of 13 categories.

The ex-autos print, a 0.8% drop, was also double the expected decline, but the control group slipped just 0.3%, better than the 0.5% drop consensus saw. Excluding autos and gas, March’s MoM drop was just half that forecasted by economists. So, the data was more aptly described as “mixed.”

Notably, food services and drinking places notched a small gain, rebounding from a 1.6% monthly drop. That’s the only services sector category included in the report. Spending on building materials, electronics and appliances all fell more than 2%. Nonstore retail spending rose.

Separately, data showed import prices fell more than expected in March, dropping 0.6% from the prior month and 4.6% YoY.

Overall, I’d suggest the data was ambiguous. It’s obvious now that January’s surge in spending was a bit of a fluke, and perhaps what we’re seeing in subsequent months isn’t as much a “slowdown” as it is payback from the early-year bonanza. Still, the US consumer plainly isn’t in the best spirits.

If it’s a “clean” read you’re after, you’ll be waiting a while longer. Taken with this week’s CPI and PPI figures, last week’s lackluster ISM prints and rising jobless claims, it’s fair to say things are cooling off. That’s about all anyone knows.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

One thought on “Ambiguous Retail Sales Suggest American Consumers In Limbo

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon