If US consumers are worried about banking stress, it’s not showing up in surveyed sentiment, or at least not in headline measures.

Consumer moods improved in early April, according to the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment, released on Friday.

At 63.5, the headline gauge beat estimates. The range, for whatever it’s worth, was 57 to 65, from more than four-dozen highly-trained, professional guessers.

It goes without saying that sentiment is still subdued. No one is elated about current circumstances, defined as they are by geopolitical tensions, elevated inflation and a latent recession just waiting to manifest in the data.

That said, both the current conditions and expectations gauges ticked higher in the Michigan survey, reflecting little in the way of concern over financial sector developments. The headline index is 27% above record lows hit last year.

In early April, the lower income spectrum was actually feeling better about the situation than higher earners. Perceptions of buying conditions for cars and durables have improved, but inflation expectations on a one-year horizon shot up.

After falling to the lowest since April of 2021 in March, one-year expectations jumped all the way back to 4.6%, the highest since November, driven (no pun intended) by gas prices.

The 1pp MoM gain was the largest since May of 2021. Three-year expectations were unchanged at 2.9%.

If they notice it, the increase on the one-year measure won’t please the Fed, but it probably won’t cause any consternation either. Officials are concerned with longer run expectations, and those are still “anchored,” according to the ad nauseam policy talking point.

In the near-term, no one knows quite what to think. Everyone, including and especially the Fed, is flying blind.

“[One year] expectations have been seesawing for four consecutive months, alternating between increases and decreases,” Michigan survey director Joanne Hsu said Friday. “Uncertainty over short run inflation expectations continues to be notably elevated, indicating that the recent volatility in expected year-ahead inflation is likely to continue.”

Yes, “likely” so.