JPMorgan kicked off big bank earnings with a very solid set of results, particularly under the circumstances. Jamie Dimon called the numbers “strong.” It was an understatement.

Adjusted revenue rose 25% YoY to $39.34 billion, easily topping estimates. Net interest income beat, deposits rose and EPS of $4.10 was a mile above estimates.

Crucially, the bank raised its full-year NII forecast to $81 billion from $73 billion. The Street was looking for just $74 billion. Markets were likely to cheer the news.

Investors are laser-focused on margins going forward, given what’s likely to be a more competitive environment for deposits amid an ongoing substitution effect favoring higher-yielding government money market funds, where a significant portion of recent inflows is parked in the Fed’s RRP facility.

Notwithstanding the rosy projection, JPMorgan said Friday there are “significant sources of uncertainty” around NII going forward, including the “magnitude and timing [of] deposit repricing,” the read-through of various macro scenarios for loan growth and the “impact of policy choices,” including RRP “terms.”

The larger banks were seen as beneficiaries of last month’s drama among a handful of smaller institutions, as deposits sought higher ground. In his annual shareholder letter, Dimon called the notion that March’s turmoil was a net positive for the nation’s largest banks “absurd.”

JPMorgan’s deposits rose in Q1, Friday’s results showed. At $2.38 trillion, total deposits were up 1.6% from Q4.

Analysts expected a slight decline to $2.33 trillion.

Investors were eyeing quarterly updates from America’s largest financial institutions even more closely than usual given last month’s tumult. The biggest banks were expected to set aside as much as $100 million each in connection with what some now regard as an ineffectual effort to shore up First Republic, the beleaguered San Francisco-based lender caught up in March’s maelstrom. Dimon, along with Janet Yellen, spearheaded a rescue push which culminated in a $30 billion deposit into First Republic, spread among the country’s largest banks.

JPMorgan’s net reserve build in Q1 was $1.1 billion. The total provision for credit losses was $2.28 billion, less than expected.

In Corporate, the bank recorded $868 million of net losses on sales of Treasurys and MBS. Those losses were higher last quarter and the quarter before that. The provision for credit losses in Corporate was $370 million, reflecting a net reserve build “driven by single name exposures.”

Trading results were better than expected on the FICC side. Revenue there was $5.7 billion, easily ahead of the $5.25 billion consensus expected. Equities came up a bit short, but not by enough to merit any attention.

IB was also better than expected, even as $1.56 billion in revenue represented a 24% drop from the period a year ago. It’s been tough going for IB over the last several quarters on Wall Street.

Although equity underwriting at JPMorgan was nearly $30 million short of consensus at $235 million, debt underwriting topped estimates, as did advisory. Overall, fees rose from Q4, and fell 19% YoY.

The release was replete with warnings on the economy, and Dimon has been adamant about the elevated odds of a macro storm or a “hurricane.” He was relatively upbeat Friday, or at least in the remarks prepared for the release.

“The US economy continues to be on generally healthy footings — consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape,” Dimon remarked. “However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks.”

Dimon nodded briefly to the same topics he addressed at length in his shareholder letter, and emphasized that March of 2023 wasn’t akin to September and October of 2008. “The banking situation is distinct from 2008 as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending,” he said, adding that he’s “monitor[ing] for potentially higher inflation for longer (and thus higher interest rates), the inflationary impact of continued fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented quantitative tightening and geopolitical tensions including relations with China and the unpredictable war in Ukraine.”

Ultimately, JPMorgan will be fine irrespective. “While we hope these clouds will dissipate, the Firm is prepared for a broad range of outcomes, and we are confident that we can serve the needs of our customers and clients in all environments,” Dimon said.

Bottom line: It’s going to be difficult to nitpick these results. JPMorgan appears to have fared well in Q1 which, I suppose, isn’t especially surprising.