An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks

If you're wondering about mispriced risk in equities, it's worth asking how stocks might react in the event markets are subjected to another disputed presidential election in America. In October of 2020, some Wall Street strategists fretted that a prolonged process whereby markets wouldn't know who won the election for weeks might undercut sentiment and stoke volatility. But no one that I'm aware of wrote openly about the risk of post-election violence, let alone an "unthinkable" scenario in wh

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8 thoughts on “An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks

  1. Thanks for diving in on this. So far, my ammo availability indicator is not showing much panic hoarding going on, though it may not be a stupid idea if you live in some places.

    However, I was compelled to reply because one of Kostin’s references triggered a memory: 15 years ago or so The Onion had a snippet reporting that Rutherford B Hayes masks were the #1 Halloween mask desired by kids that year. (Maybe some AI search can dig up the story?)

    1. Perhaps the gunTubers are preparing advice on platforms and calibers for an insurrection in your tactical situation – after all, different ballistics are needed in suburban vs urban, soft targets vs hard, etc. Anything to sell views and product. A life-long shooter myself, but modern American “gun culture” is ridiculous.

  2. There’s another kind of tail risk out there… The Guardian had a short piece today on what happens if either presidential candidate dies before being sworn in. That’s a pretty tangled mess with some form of party cannibalism seeming sure to raise its ugly head. Buckle up ladies and gents, we’re in for a ride.

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