An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks
If you're wondering about mispriced risk in equities, it's worth asking how stocks might react in the event markets are subjected to another disputed presidential election in America.
In October of 2020, some Wall Street strategists fretted that a prolonged process whereby markets wouldn't know who won the election for weeks might undercut sentiment and stoke volatility. But no one that I'm aware of wrote openly about the risk of post-election violence, let alone an "unthinkable" scenario in wh
Thanks for diving in on this. So far, my ammo availability indicator is not showing much panic hoarding going on, though it may not be a stupid idea if you live in some places.
However, I was compelled to reply because one of Kostin’s references triggered a memory: 15 years ago or so The Onion had a snippet reporting that Rutherford B Hayes masks were the #1 Halloween mask desired by kids that year. (Maybe some AI search can dig up the story?)
Perhaps the gunTubers are preparing advice on platforms and calibers for an insurrection in your tactical situation – after all, different ballistics are needed in suburban vs urban, soft targets vs hard, etc. Anything to sell views and product. A life-long shooter myself, but modern American “gun culture” is ridiculous.
The poles are neck and neck , I’m hoping that they will give Biden a bump after Trump is a convicted felon.
Doesn’t conviction of a felony mean automatic disqualification from being elected? Then he would be replaced by another Republican.
Where does it say that being a felon disqualifies you? It doesn’t. Eugen Debs ran for president as a felon.
There’s another kind of tail risk out there… The Guardian had a short piece today on what happens if either presidential candidate dies before being sworn in. That’s a pretty tangled mess with some form of party cannibalism seeming sure to raise its ugly head. Buckle up ladies and gents, we’re in for a ride.
Given how angry Trump and his supporters are I think the concern should be #3 being more like 1930’s Germany than modern day Hungary.
It really seems like a lay-up of a trade to sell the Oct/Nov VIX spread.