There’s very little on offer in the way of fundamental macro inputs this week. In fact, the docket in the US is almost completely empty.

The only notable release is the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment for this month (Friday). That’ll be eyed for evidence of any further deterioration in consumer moods.

Both the Michigan poll and the Conference Board survey suggest Americans are trepidatious and divided, a situation that isn’t likely to resolve between now and the election.

The Michigan gauge is seen fading to 76.2 in the first read for May. That’d be the lowest headline print of 2024. Recall that the Conference Board headline printed the lowest since summer of 2022 last week.

As the figure above shows, the sentiment bump that accompanied the equity rally in November and December had a short half-life.

As it turns out, there’s only so much blood you can squeeze from that particular stone when the bottom 50% of society holds just 1% of corporate equities.

It’s hard to make out from the figure below, but a 1% share for the 1st through 50th wealth percentiles (in green) actually counts as a marked improvement. That share was 0.5% in late 2018.

Note who’s really seen their share of the equity market decimated over the past quarter century: The middle-class. Their share (in yellow, above) peaked at 21% in Q3 of 2002. It bottomed below 11% 17 years later under Donald Trump.

Oh well, f–k ’em, right? They should’ve worked harder. America’s a meritocracy, after all. If 90% of the stocks ended up concentrated in the hands of just 10% of the population, and if the bottom 50% ends up with just 1% of the stocks, that’s not a broken system. It’s just a reflection of hard work and merit on the part of the few and shiftlessness among society’s teeming dregs. Now if only we could make stock ownership a prerequisite for voting, we’d be making real progress!

Some of you (especially the GOPers and Wall Streeters) will chafe at that derisively sarcastic assessment of a hopelessly (and purposefully) inegalitarian America. “I worked hard! I have stocks! I made it!” you’ll say, indignant. If that’s you, look outside in your garage. If there’s not a “B” with two wings, a Spirit of Ecstasy or something that was made by hand in Italy parked in there, guess what? You didn’t make it. Have you bought any influence on Capitol Hill lately or do you have any local politicians in your pocket? No? Well guess what? You didn’t make it. Are you personally involved in any regulatory capture? No? Well guess what? I could go on. But you get the point: The system screwed you too. Just not as badly as it screwed a lot of other people. So don’t kid yourself. (And don’t shoot the messenger.)

I digress. The only other scheduled notable in the week ahead is the latest installment of the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey. That’ll almost surely be a non-event. The SLOOS was briefly a top-tier release last year following the regional banking drama, but the existential credit crunch never materialized.

In rates, traders will watch the refunding auctions. Yields are off the YTD highs, and these are sizable supply events, but remember: The QRA confirmed no coupon increases for the remainder of 2024. And now we have a Treasury buyback program commencing just as the Fed tapers QT via a larger-than-expected reduction to the monthly runoff caps for Treasurys. That’s a pretty supportive technical backdrop. That doesn’t rule out a concession at this week’s sales, of course, nor does it change the fact that the US is selling a helluva lot of bonds. But if you’re waiting on “failed” auctions, don’t hold your breath.

As far as Fed speakers, markets will hear from Barkin, Barr, Bowman, Collins, Cook, Daly, Goolsbee, Jefferson, Kashkari, Logan and Williams in the days ahead. (I know. I know. Over-communication. It’s ridiculous and often counterproductive. But that’s life. Figuratively and literally.)

Oh, and the BoE meets this week. You don’t need a breathless editorial to “prepare” for the May policy gathering. The MPC’s on hold this month (obviously), but Andrew Bailey’s inclined to deliver the first cut at one of the ensuing three meetings. Traders will listen for any clues as to which one.