Taiwan, M2 And Other ‘Recession Now’ Canaries

Infallible or not, the yield curve is a cliché as a recession indicator. Indeed, those pursuing originality in forecasting during the post-GFC era often engaged in an effort to explain why the curve is no longer the reliable prophet it once was. After all, a lot of the factors distorting developed market government bond curves weren't present decades ago. As everyone with even a passing interest in markets knows, the US curve began predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy as earl

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