If the US labor market’s Clark Griswold driving full-speed through a “road closed” sign on
Category: economy
New Versus ‘Used’: A Tale Of Two Housing Markets
New US home sales held up pretty well in August, data out Wednesday showed, even
Here Come The Refis
After eight straight weekly declines, mortgage rates in the US are close to achieving a
What If The US Consumer Never Totally Breaks?
I’m always on the look out for disparities and contradictions in the macro narrative. Not
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Confidence among American consumers slipped in September. “Slipped” is a bit euphemistic. “Deteriorated” is probably
US Housing Market Is Sad Joke With Incomes 30% Below Affordability Level
Typical homes are hugely expensive. And typical people aren’t especially well-off. You do the math.
Fed Advised To ‘Move Cautiously’ On Cuts As PMI Price Gauges Rise
“The Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target,” S&P Global’s Chris
A BeLabored Point
In his pivotal Jackson Hole address, Jerome Powell said that in his view, it “seems
After The Cut
There’s plenty of data on offer this week across the world’s largest economy. And even
The Garbage Man
Does anybody know what China’s doing? Because I don’t know what China’s doing. And I
Should’ve Bought In Bulk
The fortunate among us have a tendency to extrapolate our own economic circumstances onto everyone
Construction, Rates And The Misnomer That Is ‘Affordable’
Thank lower rates? Maybe. Probably. Sure. New construction data released ahead of the Fed on
‘Nervous Bulls’ Almost Certain Of Soft Landing
Cash levels ticked down and growth expectations rebounded tentatively from an eight-month low, helping to
US Retail Sales Leave FOMC Narrative Unchanged
Mercifully — because the Fed and traders scarcely needed any additional variables to incorporate while
The Fate Of The World
“It’s truly amazing how the fate of the entire world seems to rest on whether
Don’t Forget The Data
Don’t forget the data. It’s a big week for monetary policy, with the Fed set
Did China Just Lose The Growth Target?
How long before they stop reporting the numbers? I’m just joking. I think. But if
It’s Gotta Be 50, Jay: The Case For A Half-Point Fed Cut
“Hey, Jay. Why don’t you just get started?” Asking for Bill Dudley. With just days
America’s Inflation Worries Fade With Fed On Deck
At 2.7%, Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to the lowest since December of 2020 early
Communist Embrace
“Common prosperity.” That’s what Xi Jinping’s ostensibly trying to promote and propagate in China. He’d
Producer Prices Warm Up, Jobless Claims Tick Higher In Disagreeable US Data
If hope still floated for a 50bps rate cut from Jerome Powell next week, Thursday’s
Goodbye 50?
While previewing this week’s US inflation update, I wrote that if you’re in the camp
Typical American Family Got Richer Last Year, Government Imagines
Do you feel richer? In real terms? Or in any other terms for that matter?
Great Leap Backwards
Different month, same contrast. The much-discussed divergence between China’s outbound shipments and imports was on
The Unfolding Tragedy Of Xi Jinping’s China
China could’ve ruled the world. All the government in Beijing had to do was pretend
Belle Époque
One’s a recovering alcoholic who still drinks wine “responsibly” and dreams of starting her own
US Inflation Update, ECB Rate Cut On Deck As Stocks Try To Recover
I’d say the size of the first Fed rate cut will be decided this week,
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