Sales of newly constructed US homes fell sharply in October, when the South was recovering from bad weather, volatile data released on Tuesday showed.

In this instance, “sharply” is an understatement. The annual rate last month was just 610,000, the Census Bureau said. Consensus was 725,000.

The decline from September’s rate was a dramatic 17.3%. As the figure below shows, that counts as the largest MoM drop since 2013.

The pace was the weakest in nearly two years. As a quick reminder, the Census Bureau defines a “sale” as a “deposit taken or sales agreement signed.” Rates, you’ll recall, rose nearly 40bps during the first two weeks of October, and by 60bps for the full month.

Again, I should emphasize that hurricanes played a role here, and also that this release is very, very volatile. It’s a mistake (to put it mildly) to read too much, or anything at all depending on the month, into these figures. Nevertheless, the sheer scope of the drop was notable. Sales in the South dropped almost 28%.

Prices were quite high, probably due to storm distortions. Home prices are more affordable in the South, so if sales there were lower, that would’ve impacted overall prices. The median in October was $437,300, the highest since August of 2023, and up markedly from the prior month.

October’s median represented a 4.7% YoY gain, the biggest 12-month jump since January. The average price, at $545,800, was a new record.

Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller 20-city gauge posted a 0.2% MoM gain in September, Tuesday’s update showed. That was cooler than the expected 0.3% monthly increase. Unadjusted, prices receded. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high,” S&P’s Brian Luke remarked.

On a YoY basis, the 20-city gauge rose 4.6% and the national index 3.9%.

The figure gives you some context. There was no real “correction,” but the pace of annual increases is moderating.

Finally, FHFA on Tuesday said home prices rose 4.3% last quarter versus Q3 of 2023 and 0.7% versus Q2 2024. Prices likewise rose 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, in September. That was more than double the expected monthly gain.

This is the same story over and over again. “House prices continued to increase because housing demand outpaced the locked-in housing supply,” FHFA’s director of research, Anju Vajja, said, adding that all the same, “elevated prices and mortgage rates” may mean a “slowdown in price growth.”

For what it’s worth, Redfin’s Dana Anderson said homebuyers “are jumping into the market now that the election has passed and the Fed has cut interest rates for the second time in a row.” She cited “the number of people contacting Redfin agents for help buying and/or selling their home.” Those contacts are up 17% versus the same period a year ago.