Everyone knows, after all these years, how I feel about the average person, or I guess I should say how I feel about the average American: We’re a gullible country full of people ready and willing to buy anything anyone’s selling at any time.
I’m no different. Well, I’m a little different, I guess. I don’t buy propaganda and I’m immune to most kinds of nefarious bullsh-t, but I’m a sucker for a lot of things other people are probably immune to, so I don’t give myself any passes.
Americans’ incurable penchant for credulity (attributable in part, but not in whole, to pitiably poor education outcomes for the richest country the world’s ever known) goes a very long way towards explaining the political rise of Donald Trump, a demagogic carnival barker peddling snake oil to a disaffected populace looking for scapegoats to excuse their own shortcomings.
One of the (by now innumerable) lies Trump foisted on the credulous American public is the one that says he’s a fabulously successful businessman. In fact, he’s a silver spoon, male debutante who tried very hard, and nearly succeeded on more than a few occasions, to lose a meaningful portion of a large inheritance gambling on real estate and poking around in just about every sort of venture you can imagine, from expensive seminars masquerading as college credits to mail-order steaks.
Trump bankrupted half a dozen businesses, and the great irony of his “career” is that his most (and in some respects only) successful foray in the business world was an acting gig that had him play the part of a successful businessman. The Apprentice wasn’t just the quintessential example of “fake it ’til you make it,” the show actually embodied the phrase: Trump finally made it big in business by — wait for it — pretending to have made it big in business. It’d be genius except that it was an accident. Nobody knew The Apprentice would turn out to be as popular as it was, but somebody probably should’ve known because look who the audience is: Americans.
That brings us to what, predictably, was a record jump in small business optimism in the first NFIB update since the election. Everyone knew this was coming. With the possible exception of a Cracker Barrel dining room, no one loves Trump like small businesses.
The month-to-month increase was quite pronounced (where that means the biggest ever), and as the figure shows, the rolling two-month increase is the largest since — you guessed it — Trump’s first win, in 2016.
The headline gauge is now back above the long run average for the first time in three years. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg lauded “a major shift in economic policy” as a result of the election. “Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions” after the vote, he added, noting that the survey’s measure of uncertainty receded from a record high.
Naturally, business owners expect tax cuts and de-regulation. Because that’s what Trump told them to expect. “Mom and pop” are also looking forward to “strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures,” and Dunkelberg said small business owners are now “eager to expand.”
Amusingly, the net share who said the US economy’s poised to improve going forward rocketed 41 points to notch the best reading since June of 2020.
Folks, I hope small businesses owners are right. God knows I do. The thing about me and people is that although I don’t like them, I wish them — all of them, nearly — the absolute best in everything that they do. Humans experience suffering in a unique way as a result of our hyper self-awareness. Ours is a tragic condition and frankly I wouldn’t wish it on other species. So, when I say I want nothing but the best for everyone in a second Trump term, you can be sure I really mean it, and more so than any partisan hack who’s just hoping things go well so Trump has bragging rights.
And yet, I see more than a little naivete in charts like the one above, and like the one below, which illustrates just how fired up markets are about Trump’s second coming.
The post-election rally in 2024 is anomalous, or at least way out ahead of historical post-election precedent.
As the figure makes clear, it’s not unusual for stocks to rise once the event risk clears, but what we’ve seen in recent weeks suggests market participants, like small business owners, might be out ahead of themselves, and meaningfully so.
Coming quickly — or relatively quickly, anyway — full circle, Americans are a gullible country full of people ready and willing to buy anything anyone’s selling at any time. Small businesses are buying the story Trump’s telling. And investors are buying US stocks hand over fist on the same narrative.
Just wait til they fire a million government employees. That’ll turbocharge domestic consumption.
Am i tripping or are his policies going to cause a recession at which point he can fill the fed chair with troy mcclure?
Simplistic math tells me that S&P 6100 = November/ December election year average 6.5%
I continue to invest because I believe in the long term success of our country. The trump hype is like the bitcoin hype ,nuts. I hope nobody gets wiped out, but the idea (The very idea !, as Biden kept saying in the debate) that “Trump will fix it” is laughable.
Well, THIS small mom-and-pop business owner is not so optimistic. Most of it is related to the amazingly fast pace of change in how America shops and who actually owns the corner store or take-out joint. But in my business the threat of tariffs looms, and probably just because Trump doesn’t drink Scotch or French wine. My wife’s customers in fashion industry feel the same.
I really don’t know that much about the NFIB beyond the wikipedia blurb I just read. But founded in 1943 in Tennessee? Are they just surveying small business people in all those fly-over states that wear God, Guns and Trump t-shirts?
And if I could….. I have a long standing thought about the talk of Trump’s failures and successes. Let’s face it, he built multiple towers in Manhattan (poorly, I hear, but still). That he did with a giant inheritance is one thing, but he still did it. That alone put him in the category of ‘successful.’ Then there’s the constant chasing of crappy marketing ploys, almost all of which failed. I’d still weigh that as a ‘successful’ career, though one with a giant asterisk.
Now there’s the half dozen bankruptcies. I’m not clued in on the details of any of them beyond a passing understanding that he screwed a lot of people in Atlantic City, nor do I care to understand it. But, I will wager that a lot of it was just Trump grifting, using bankruptcy laws to his personal advantage to enrich himself by screwing others. So in that vein, he’s more of a conman than a failure. His grand exit is his greatest move ever. He’s President of the US, and not once but twice. He’s the most successful businessman-grifter of all time! I just wish it was during someone else’s lifetime, not mine.
Interesting take on him.
The greatest con man of all time.
Maybe make a movie of that title.
Maybe the reason he won is ozempic blues. If you cannot shake the ozempic blues why not give people too smart to take ozempic a case of indigestion. Misery loves company, take some misery with that hot chocolate. BTW the hot chocolate is white, only white chocolate served in MAGAT land.
Of all his bankruptcies, Trump’s most impressive are the casinos. And it’s not like the Taj was some dingy decades-old gambling hall like the Horseshoe or some other downtown Vegas dive. The Taj was the premier casino in AC until Borgata came along. I know it well from a previous life–the Taj Mahal had the largest poker room in Atlantic City.
If there’s one iron law of gambling, it’s that the house always wins. It takes a special kind of achiever (and proud we are of all of them) to manage to lose despite owning the house. The Wikipedia page actually surprised me: apparently Trump Entertainment Resorts actually went into bankruptcy 4 times before the end. After the 2nd bankruptcy, Trump was kicked off the board, so I guess you can’t hold the last two against him.
Now it’s a Hard Rock Casino. They tore out the poker room.
According to a NYT article in 2018, Mr. Trump received an estimated $413M (in 2018 dollars) from his father over the course of his father’s life and from the estate. A few years ago, I read that had Mr. Trump merely bought SPY with the money, he’d had more today than his share of his businesses. From PolitiFact: “The Times’ investigation, based on a vast trove of confidential tax returns and financial records, reveals that Mr. Trump received the equivalent today of at least $413 million from his father’s real estate empire, starting when he was a toddler and continuing to this day,” the article said. This day, being in 2018.
H-Man, after this Xmas rally, we will see who is buying in during 2025.