‘Fearing The Future,’ Americans Resort To Debt-Funded Stockpiling

Some articles write themselves. This is one of them.

On Friday, the preliminary read on America’s marquee consumer sentiment gauge suggested some Americans are terrified of “Tariff Man.” A measure of buying conditions for durable goods inflected on a veritable 90-degree angle, reflecting tariff-related expectations for price increases. The message: Buy now before blanket tariffs make durables more expensive.

As it turns out, Americans are putting their money where their mouth is on that, and not just as it relates to appliances. According to a new report by CreditCards.com, 40% of consumers expect to buy more items than they usually do over the final two months of the year, and a combined 54% of those who plan to spend more this holiday season cited, as their motivation, something to do with trade.

As the figure shows, “fear of rising prices due to tariffs” was the most-cited factor. That’s Trump for sure. Another quarter said they were concerned about “potential supply chain disruptions” which doesn’t have to mean Trump, but probably does in at least some cases.

Note that one in five cited “societal instability” in the US. I wouldn’t want to put all of that off on Trump, but let’s face it: Rage and division is the oxygen that feeds the MAGA fire. If there’s no discontent, there’s no MAGA movement, which is why Trump goes out of his way to keep the temperature dialed up.

Another 20% in the poll cited recession worries, and 15% were concerned (not irrationally, by the way) about another pandemic. I used to say this all the time in 2020, and it was a little morbid, so I stopped, but… well, here it is again: If one of the filoviruses were to suddenly become hyper-contagious such that it could spread rapidly and efficiently through the air, we’re all dead. Full stop.

Among those stockpiling, toilet paper was popular, as was astronaut food and medicine. Over-the-counter medicine, to be precise about things. Because Americans already have plenty of prescription pills. Guns and ammo were relatively low on the list, but Americans already have plenty of those too: 400 million privately-held guns, give or take, and God only knows how many bullets. More than a third said they were buying cosmetics. “It’s eyeliner, dummy.” (That’s an obscure one. Maybe someone will get it.)

The same survey showed more than one in five Americans plan to make “a large purchase before the end of the year.” That presumably means a durable of some kind, not that navy blue wool Celine college zip-through hoodie the voice in my head keeps telling me to buy before the smalls run out. “Many,” the color accompanying the poll said, “are motivated to buy ahead of Trump’s tariffs.”

If you’re wondering how Americans plan to fund all this stockpiling and durables-buying, one in three said they’ll “go into or worsen debt” in order to “secure purchases now,”  a reflection, perhaps, of the urgency instilled by “Tariff Man.” Indeed, when asked specifically if tariffs were influencing their decision-making around purchases this month, a combined 62% said tariffs were a factor.

John Egan — a freelancer from Austin who CreditCards.com describes as a personal finance “expert” —  said that “with the possibility of tariffs hanging over cheap goods from countries like China and Mexico, it’s no surprise that some consumers are pondering big-ticket purchases before President-elect Trump takes office.”

Egan went on to write that “manufacturers pay the tariffs” and the “extra costs often get passed along to shoppers in the form of higher prices.” That’s obviously wrong. As everyone knows, China and Mexico actually pay the tariffs via giant, sweepstakes-sized checks made out to Scott Bessent. Failing that, there’s another mechanism. Claudia Sheinbaum and Xi Jinping can also pay the duties out of a jointly-held crypto wallet, which they fund with taxes on Mexicans and Chinese. Sheinbaum and Xi transfer the funds to a wallet owned by World Liberty Financial which, through a series of additional crypto transactions, buys Bitcoin for America’s strategic crypto reserve.

Meanwhile, Fed data released on Friday showed Americans’ revolving credit balances rose nearly $16 billion in October, a month defined by a dramatic betting-odds shift in favor of Trump and a “red sweep.”

As the figure shows, October’s jump was the largest MoM gain since June of 2022, when inflation peaked in the US and the Fed upped the rate-hike ante to 75bps. Variable rates will come down a bit in the months ahead, but as of August they were loitering near record highs.

You could, if you wanted to (which is to say if you’re Bloomberg), write October’s big increase in revolving credit balances off to Amazon Prime Day, Walmart deals and early Christmas shopping. I won’t argue, but at the same time, I’d be remiss not to mention the numbers in an article about a survey which suggests Americans are engaged in debt-funded stockpiling.

On the bright side, if the world ends, you won’t have to pay your credit card back.


 

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6 thoughts on “‘Fearing The Future,’ Americans Resort To Debt-Funded Stockpiling

  1. Too late, hoodie gone, at least in the small size.
    Or did you do what you should have done and order it when you wrote the article? If so, Merry Christmas ;-).
    My experience is discount stores, and I’ve learned if you see it now, get it now, it’ likely to be gone when you finally make up your mind and come back to it. Granted, I’m not buying $2,300 sweaters, but the lesson is the same. And you can always return it if you change your mind.

  2. “On the bright side, if the world ends, you won’t have to pay your credit card back.” – unlike medical and student debt which will follow you until the heat death of the universe.

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