Consumer sentiment in the US improved a fifth month, pushing America’s marquee mood gauge to the highest since April, preliminary figures for December released on Friday showed.
At 74, the University of Michigan headline was above consensus, but not by a lot. Economists collectively expected 73.2.
As the figure below reminds you, we’re still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels.
Notably, it was the current conditions index which drove the upside in early responses for December. That index jumped sharply from 63.9 all the way to 77.7. The expectations gauge actually dropped to 71.6 from 76.9.
This was an interesting release. The surge in the current conditions index was down to a dramatic increase in perceptions of relative buying conditions for durables.
Can you guess why Americans might be inclined to think now’s a good time to buy durables as opposed to, say, post-inauguration? Here’s a hint:
As it turns out, consumers are concerned about tariffs. Imagine that.
“Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases,” survey director Joanne Hsu remarked.
Although inflation expectations at the medium-term horizon ticked lower, the year-ahead series showed a meaningful uptick to 2.9% from 2.6%.
That’s not a large increase in context, but considering how much media attention Trump’s tariffs have received (including all kinds of hilarious headlines like this one, from the FT: “Tariff Man’s superpowers are weaker than he thinks”), it’s worth a mention all the same.
Needless to say, there’s a lot of partisanship to account for, but if you ask Hsu, it all comes out in the wash. “[T]hroughout this month’s interviews, Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation [while] Republicans disagreed [saying] they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation,” she said, adding that “national measures of sentiment and expectations continue to reflect the collective economic experiences and observations of the American population as a whole.”
Sentiment among Republicans is perched at a four-year high. Among Democrats, by contrast, sentiment now sits at a two-year nadir.
If getting robbed blind makes you feel better, is the grifter doing a good deed by taking advantage of you?
Hard to believe that inflation won’t be Tariffman’s kryptonite.
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a… whatever the hell that thing is!
I’m now imagining AI trying to draw Tariff Man without any guidance that it should look like Donald Trump, but describing Trump in detail.
“An elderly, heavy set man wearing a suit flies over a low wall in a classic Superman pose, his curiously orange skin a marked contrast to his grey/blonde hair that’s styled into a bouffant suggestive of the world’s most ambitious comb-over. Dollar bills spill out of every orifice, as his red, white, & blue cape adorned with the letter T flutters behind. In the background, a hodgepodge of Mexican and Chinese laborers cower in trepidation.”
Dear God, I wrote this before seeing the thumbnail on the email notification. In other news, I just threw up inside my mouth a little.
Yeah, that’s an old banner image. I used AI to upsize it and sharpen it today, but ultimately I decided it was too corny for “modern” Heisenberg Report. (Ah, the good ol’ days.)
I just bought a snapdragon laptop at 40% off because I expect next year at this time it’ll be 40% more expensive than MSRP. Can’t wait.
I’ll take as wild a guess an anyone and say that I think Trump will use tariffs more as a threat and will impose far fewer than expected. It may make it through to him that he could spike inflation, and he won’t want to look like Biden (not that he couldn’t spin it to his followers any way he pleases), plus he relishes doing the opposite of expectations (George Costanza for President next?) and keep people guessing.
Beg to differ, that is SO 2017! He needs tariff revenues to convince GOP lawmakers to support further corporate tax cuts.
Plus, more important, he really wants to go down as one of “the greatest presidents in history”. The man who kickstarted the great resurgence of manufacturing in the USA. That’s the goal of tariffs this term. How does getting the EU to buy more LNG or China to buy more corn get the crews starting to chip Teddy Roosevelt off of Mt. Rushmore to make space for his image?
Last term he was worried about his reelection. This time he is concerned with his historical legacy!
I guess it’s a race with cognitive impairment though his backroom crew is much younger and even more aggressive.
Historical legacy? He is transaction oriented not future oriented.
Is or was? I fear that he is still trying to please his father Fred. Not getting China to buy more soybeans from us. (What else can we sell them? Chips????)
A tell for me was how few times he mentioned the trade deficit during this campaign versus his first. I cannot recall many, if any, references to “levelling the playing field” and such. This time it’s all “we will bring manufacturing and jobs back to the USA.”
Many here along with other friends and colleagues suggest I am deluded about this. That could be. But if I am not insane, we may be living through a monumental period in our economic history. I always recall so many people in retrospect asking “how could the Jews in Germany ignored the clear writing on the wall and stayed put?”
It is human nature as small people to keep their head down and trust that others will fix things right. It is like the deer in the headlights. The deer does not react because the deer does not see the headlights as a threat. It is far off and away from our day to day problems.
However I think at some point the asteroid will come down on our planet, the supervolcano will blow it’s top or we might be seeing the start of WWIII. Who knows, most of the time it makes no sense to react.
What guides me are my values. MAGAT’s and project 2025 philosophy is diametrically opposed to my values. I believe that sustainability for government and thus our wealth is through how our government treats it’s people. The only sustainable route for our government is to act like Jesus Christ. Heal the sick, take care of the poor, help the young and otherwise be a good community member. That will lead to the strongest of possible governments a government that rules by tyranny dies by tyranny.
What I fear worst is that Donnie and his closest associates are in cahoots with Valadimir Putin. I would not put it past Putin to engineer puppets in the american political system. He has the means, wherwithall and desire to do as much. Donnie is just enough of an imbicile and unable to think about outcomes that he can be controlled and manipulated to do unspeakable things to others.
Derek – concerned with his legacy? Are you sure not more concerned with how to circumvent the term limits and become fuhrer for life?
“Sentiment among Republicans is perched at a four-year high.”
Not this Republican.