For most of the current cycle in the US, jobless claims were largely inert such that a series which, during the earliest days of the pandemic, was among the most important macro indicators on the planet, became nearly irrelevant.

At some point, jobless claims will be notable again, but the sheer number of false starts on that front makes anyone who suggests a given uptick might be the start of something seem like the boy who cried wolf.

With that in mind, claims unexpectedly shot up to 242,000 during the week to December 7, Thursday’s update showed. That was meaningfully higher than the 220,000 consensus and the second advance in a row.

The initial filers headline now sits at its highest level since October 12, the week after a weather-related surge. Claims are up 27,000 in two weeks. With Thursday’s print, the four-week moving average is 224,250, a six-week high.

It’d be a mistake to make too much of the figures given that the two-week increase occurred into and following Thanksgiving. But the uptick’s notable all the same.

Also notable: Another elevated continuing claims print. Ongoing filers were 1.886 million in the week to November 30, more than the 1.877 million consensus expected.

As the figure above shows, the share of jobless Americans who say they’ve been searching for at least 15 weeks is elevated, and although continuing claims aren’t (elevated) by any historical standard, they’ve nevertheless drifted up and remain perched near three-year highs.

Coming quickly full circle, the uptick on the initial filers headline is probably “nothing.” It’ll fade, like so many other false alarms. But the ongoing claims series will likely drift even higher, and that’s arguably more relevant for monetary policy.

Food for thought, if nothing else.