Headline inflation’s back above target in Europe, but don’t worry, the ECB will probably cut rates again anyway next month.

12-month price growth was 2.3% in November, preliminary figures released on Friday showed.

That was the warmest since July and it came courtesy in no small part of base effects, which is to say the increase was expected.

November marked the second consecutive month during which the headline pace moved higher. Core was 2.7%. Again. It’s been stuck there since September, when the headline gauge briefly dipped below target.

Recall that the ECB, after all but ruling out an October rate cut, decided to pull the trigger anyway based on a spate of lackluster soft data. That cut was the third of the cycle. Expect a fourth next month.

Notwithstanding a decent read on bloc-wide growth for Q3, nothing’s changed structurally about the European economy in the 2020s, so there’s no reason for anyone to expect lively growth.

Flash PMIs for November found the composite gauge slipping back into contraction territory to register a 10-month low.

“Economic activity continues to show signs of weakness and while wage growth has come in hotter than expected in the third quarter, this is likely more of a ‘last hurrah’ than an accelerating trend,” ING’s Bert Colijn said Friday. “With demand expected to remain weak, it doesn’t look like the ECB should be overly concerned about the current uptick in inflation.”

It’s probably worth noting that the euro’s rough go of things amid pervasive dollar strength could translate into upward pressure on some prices in Europe eventually.

November’s on track to be one of the worst months for the common currency against the greenback in a very long time, and parity’s back as a conversation starter, if those are the types of conversations you have.

“Since the start of 2020, it’s been about growth differentials and capital flows from Europe to faster growth and higher rates in the US,” SocGen’s Kit Juckes said. “To break parity, we need a new Fed tightening cycle to start, or the European economic outlook to deteriorate enough that the ECB caries on easing and the terminal rate falls well below the 2.25% we currently expect.”

Do note: Donald Trump, in the past, was aggrieved by currency weakness among America’s trade partners, a phenomenon he insisted was deliberate and aimed at undermining his cherished tariffs. He didn’t understand, or was reluctant to concede, that his own, run-it-hot domestic economic policies contributed just as much, if not more, to dollar strength, than foreign monetary policy.

In any event, Friday’s release from Eurostat also showed services inflation in Europe ran 3.9% this month. With the exception of a dip to 3.7% in April, the services price growth gauge has meandered in a range between 3.9% and 4.1% for the last year.