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Author: therealheisenberg

The Fog Of War

March 4, 2025March 5, 2025

Wall Street tried on Tuesday to claw back the worst of the session’s tariff-related losses,

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7 Comments on The Fog Of War

Trump’s Probably Serious About Annexing Canada

March 4, 2025March 5, 2025

I wonder sometimes what 45/47’s followers imagine goes on every morning in blue households across

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23 Comments on Trump’s Probably Serious About Annexing Canada

You Can’t Fix Stupid

March 4, 2025March 5, 2025

Tariffs. They’re news. Global risk sentiment took a hit Tuesday as Donald Trump followed through

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25 Comments on You Can’t Fix Stupid

US Corporate Profits Aren’t What You Think

March 3, 2025March 3, 2025

Over the weekend, I talked a bit about the read-through of suddenly soft US macro

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‘No Room Left’

March 3, 2025March 4, 2025

As of the closing bell on Wall Street Monday, there was “no room left for

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8 Comments on ‘No Room Left’

Great Television

March 3, 2025March 5, 2025

A lot of folks seem to think Donald Trump knows what he’s doing when it

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13 Comments on Great Television

New Orders Collapse, Price Pressures Surge As Tariffs Upend US Manufacturing

March 3, 2025March 4, 2025

Yuck. That’s one word to describe the juxtaposition between a sharp deceleration in a key

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5 Comments on New Orders Collapse, Price Pressures Surge As Tariffs Upend US Manufacturing

Are War Bonds The ECB’s Next ‘Whatever It Takes’ Challenge?

March 3, 2025March 4, 2025

The ECB, which meets this week, has an unenviable job: Monetary policy in the euro-zone’s

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5 Comments on Are War Bonds The ECB’s Next ‘Whatever It Takes’ Challenge?

Doubt Creeps Into EPS Growth Forecasts As US Economy Stutters

March 2, 2025March 2, 2025

The nascent US economic slowdown unfurling across a number of key macro metrics and indicators

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US Jobs Report Looms With Traders On Slowdown Watch

March 2, 2025March 3, 2025

It’s jobs week in the US, and the numbers better not disappoint. The nascent slowdown

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8 Comments on US Jobs Report Looms With Traders On Slowdown Watch

The Devil’s Greatest Trick

March 1, 2025March 12, 2025

[Editor’s note: In consideration of the historic events which unfolded at The White House on

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44 Comments on The Devil’s Greatest Trick

MECA!

February 28, 2025March 3, 2025

Make recessions great again. Sorry. That’s the worst kind of cheap, unimaginative punchline, which is

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8 Comments on MECA!

Gold!

February 28, 2025March 3, 2025

Gold! Every time I mention it, someone loses their mind. Hold onto your sanity. Gold!

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4 Comments on Gold!

US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

February 28, 2025March 2, 2025

“Oh, Ey!” as the Sopranos cast might put it. Real personal spending in the US

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7 Comments on US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

February 28, 2025March 1, 2025

“Nouveau bulls” are nervous and the S&P’s one meaningful weekly loss away from creating the

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6 Comments on Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

February 27, 2025

Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when

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6 Comments on The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

Tariffs. Again.

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Metrics and benchmarks. You need them if you’re going to assess outcomes in the context

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21 Comments on Tariffs. Again.

Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Bad news. More bad news. More more bad news. Pending home sales in the US

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3 Comments on Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

US Jobless Claims Spike Amid DOGE Worries

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

US jobless claims overshot meaningfully in Thursday’s update, a development which may underscore growing concerns

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Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Records. Lots of them. That’s what Nvidia reported on Wednesday afternoon, following another lackluster session

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3 Comments on Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

February 26, 2025February 28, 2025

Late last year, I wrote about “anticipatory obedience” in the context of America’s tech moguls

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27 Comments on This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

Art Of The Steal

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Congratulations to Donald Trump. He successfully extorted a desperate, war-torn Ukraine for a huge share

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22 Comments on Art Of The Steal

New US Home Sales Crash In Latest Data Disappointment

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

New US home sales plunged in January following back-to-back increases, Wednesday’s sole notable US macro

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About Those Leveraged ETFs…

February 25, 2025

“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a

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2 Comments on About Those Leveraged ETFs…

It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Benchmark US yields were 4.80% or so on January 13. On Tuesday, following another lackluster

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10 Comments on It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Surprise! Confidence among US consumers fell off the map in February, as rampant policy uncertainty, tariff-related

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4 Comments on American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The annual pace of US home price growth across 20 large metro areas picked up

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26 Comments on Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Mr. Dog on The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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