Tariffs. They’re news.
Global risk sentiment took a hit Tuesday as Donald Trump followed through on his threat to drive up costs on a third of products America imports. And yes, that’s probably the best way to describe the levies on Canada, China and Mexico.
For the millionth time, those countries don’t pay Trump’s tariffs. When he says they do, or intimates as much, he’s lying. Full stop.
Importers pay tariffs, which means American consumers will ultimately bear the costs, unless you think businesses are inclined to absorb the levies in the form of lower margins (they aren’t). There are some mitigating factors, but by and large, the choice for US firms which import goods from abroad, or use imported materials, is between crimped profits and raising prices to consumers. They’ll generally choose the latter.
Apparently, the average tariff in the US is now the highest in 78 years, and number crunchers reckon American households could expect to pay up to $2,000 more per year if these duties are sustained.
Earlier this week, an independent analysis concluded that the levies on Canada and Mexico could push up car prices for Americans by $12,000 for EVs, and $4,000 for popular “crossover” models (those small SUVs everyone likes now). In remarks to Bloomberg, the CEO of the consultancy which published the report stated the obvious: Sticker shock of that magnitude should be expected to hit sales, “directly and almost immediately.”
In all likelihood, the cost of produce is going to rise if Trump doesn’t reverse course in a hurry. For example, Target CEO Brian Cornell warned Tuesday that shoppers can expect price hikes on fruit and vegetables “over the next couple of days.” Target, Cornell explained, in an interview with CNBC, imports a lot of produce from Mexico, not because the company isn’t patriotic, but rather because, as it turns out, it gets cold in the US during the winter.
“[W]e’ll try to protect pricing, but if there’s a 25% tariff, those prices will go up,” Cornell said, flatly. In results released before the bell, Target cited tariffs and “ongoing consumer uncertainty” in warning of “meaningful profit pressure in the first quarter.”
Note that America’s set to run a record farm products deficit this year approaching $50 billion, which suggests the very last thing households need is draconian tariffs on countries like Mexico. Americans are still stinging from the worst bout of grocery price inflation in a generation. And Trump ran, in part, on an anti-inflation message. The discordance between that message and sweeping tariffs is glaringly absurd.
Trump suggested America can square the circle by ramping up crop yields. “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product,” he shouted, on his social media platform. “Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”
That’s so stupid, and on so many levels, that you don’t know where to start when it comes to satirizing it. You can’t just “start making” a lot of fruit, for example. It’s a natural process, and although we’ve developed any number of methods for speeding it up over the centuries, you don’t have no strawberries today and a lot of strawberries on Thursday. That’s not how it works. And although farmers are famously enamored with their crops, I’m not sure “Have fun!” is the best message here.
Meanwhile, Best Buy CEO Corie Barry likewise warned of price increases, given the importance of China and Mexico in the supply chain. “We expect our vendors across our entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers highly likely,” Barry said. I suppose Trump will suggest America’s television farmers start growing more flatscreens.
All the usual critiques apply here. Tit-for-tat escalations, if sustained, will pressure US growth through any number of channels. China retaliated immediately. Justin Trudeau described Trump’s actions as “unjustified,” and said Canada “will not” let his decision “go unanswered.” Mexico was expected to unveil its own countermeasures.
According to a Yale model, the growth impact of the levies could amount to a 0.6ppt hit in calendar year 2025. The color accompanying the study noted that although “the level of GDP begins to recover modestly as production and supply chains reoptimize” after the second year, the US economy ends up “permanently smaller by $80-$110 billion annually in 2024 dollars” if you assume the levies and retaliatory duties remain in place in perpetuity.
(“Have fun!”)
Stupid is the only way to describe it. Even if Trump pulled back on tariffs or reinstated aid to Ukraine, our reputation is gone. Just like Trump has done to media and government, the long term impact of eroding trust will take time to become fully apparent, but the path we’ve chosen is going to result in own goal after own goal.
Less than two weeks until the next major shock when the government shuts down!
On the plus side, maybe we’ll get to witness the first death spiral of a trillion dollar company if Tesla keeps dropping like a rock.
Not to worry, private equity will buy GM also. Depressions are always good buying opportunities and it puts the poor people in their place.
Notice Uncle Warren’s selling and build of monster cash hoard over last several months…as BRK has made new all-time highs. Waiting for more blood in the streets, starting to flow!
“Growing more flatscreens” LOL
Can’t wait for Amazon to start jacking prices on my monthly subscribe and save items which already increase every other month as is :/
…and we continue to cancel or reduce our subscribe and save orders, as we sell off short term rental properties (though, perhaps should be waiting for a Trumpfather EO suspending cap gains taxes on RE…?)
Feels like we’re moving towards a consumption tax mode with an intention to reduce income and property taxes. Brutal for most Americans.
That is correct. Right wingers would never accept a VAT since it is a “European: thing” and cumbersome to implement. A national sales tax fails because it is a TAX.
Given that, tariffs are a great backdoor way to introduce a consumption tax.
Another lose-lose event – again and again. Some people have to fall to see the ground, hope people start jumping before it’s too late.
Whoever the marketing genius was who came up with rebranding station wagons as “crossovers” did not get paid as much as they deserved.
Some but not all ‘crossovers’ have a truck suspension with greater ground clearance and ride higher over rough terrain. However some I think do not, thereby blurring the lines.
We like our Audi Allroads…real station wagons but nevertheless rebranded to appeal to the “crossover” market.
Not trying to be offensive but: ‘Allroads’, now that’s funny! Better carry a good flashlight in case it gets high centered on its shadow.
Certainly feeling thankful about “who’s sticking around for the crash” (and other articles around that time), I’m fairly sure that one was what started the creeping back ache which eventually got me to rebalance and reduce risk by “broken clocks”. Feeling pretty good about that choice by now.
Right on. But it is us, the stupid voters who elected this guy.
“Trump won 77,284,118 votes, or 49.8 percent of the votes cast for president. That is the second highest vote total in U.S. history”
That’s a lot of supposedly stupid voters; beats me what they were thinking or not thinking.
I think the US has had it too easy for too long and people don’t understand that it can all come crashing down. It’s just a confidence game. Look at Liz Truss in the Uk she almost single handedly wiped out the UK bond market and everyone’s pensions with it in a few weeks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride with “stupid is as stupid does” at the helm.
On tariffs, Trump is showing all the inference and observational skills of a small child being told that a flame is hot, but who has to see for himself. So, no, you can’t fix stupid, but I’m told stupid burns pretty good.. We might be about to see for ourselves.
More good news!
“We have a new trend, which is what we’re focused on,” Bessent said in an interview Tuesday on Fox and Friends. “It’s a focus on Main Street.”
“Wall Street’s done great… Wall Street can continue to do fine,” he added. “But we have a focus on small business and the consumers. So we are going to rebalance the economy. We’re going to bring manufacturing jobs home.”
Bessent also said the Trump administration is set on bringing interest rates down, highlighting that the drop in rates is one of the administration’s most significant accomplishments so far.”
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/wall-street-will-be-fine-we-are-focused-on-main-street–treasurys-bessent-3906495
Again, I feel like I could have written this entire thing out as a script that is now being portrayed on the screen the way its playing out.
Admittedly, the ongoing Trump Dump is proving quite effective, making rapid progress in bringing down 10Y rates. Recession to follow(?) should finish the job! That should make housing more affordable…for those who still have income or assets sufficient to buy…
The clown car is pretty full of idiots. What strikes me is what I see as the normalization of the exhaust coming out of the car. The administration “guests” on the shows I have been watching are obviously twisting themselves into knots trying to justify our transition to bizarro world yet the reporters no longer call bullshit.
Past time for congress to pull up their little boy panties. Need to start recall elections for reps and congressmen who won’t stand up for the Constitution.
I do not think you are wrong. How to get them to ‘man up’ appears to be the greatest mystery of all. These are dark times and we all need to think more like Frodo or Bilbo.
PS: It’s going to cost Americans to try to “make more” agricultural products when almost all of your fertilizer, the magic ingredient, comes from Canada.
” so stupid, and on so many levels, ” Maybe this is 3D chess ! We don’t get it.
I’m crossing out ‘moron” and substituting “cretin”
And just think: for almost all of the people who voted for Trump, all they ever really wanted was to own a lib.