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Author: therealheisenberg

Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The annual pace of US home price growth across 20 large metro areas picked up

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26 Comments on Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

Chip Wars Rage

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The US is hell-bent on stymieing China’s semiconductor ambitions and thereby impeding one of Xi

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2 Comments on Chip Wars Rage

0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

February 24, 2025February 24, 2025

Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in

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3 Comments on 0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

Consensus Gone Wrong?

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Does the nascent “buy Europe” theme have any staying power? It depends. On whether the

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4 Comments on Consensus Gone Wrong?

Commencing US Growth Scare

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

The US macro narrative’s shifting. Fast. As discussed at some length Monday in “Traders Rush

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1 Comment on Commencing US Growth Scare

Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Market participants are waking up to an uncomfortable reality regarding the near-term domestic macro read-through

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14 Comments on Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

Visible Hands

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Donald Trump can’t help himself. He has to escalate. I’d call it a compulsion, but

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5 Comments on Visible Hands

Alice In Deutschland

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

Hotly-anticipated German election results offered few surprises if the ballot offered any at all. As

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8 Comments on Alice In Deutschland

Don’t Call It A Ceasefire

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

I shouldn’t have to say this, but the Kremlin can’t be trusted to honor any

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13 Comments on Don’t Call It A Ceasefire

46 Long Months

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

Is the Fed’s inflation goal actually achievable in the post-pandemic macro reality, defined as it

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6 Comments on 46 Long Months

Duck, Duck, Goose Step

February 22, 2025February 24, 2025

This was “the week that shook Europe,” according to Guardian chief Katharine Viner, who on Saturday

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31 Comments on Duck, Duck, Goose Step

Fed Hit With ‘Anything But That’ Moment In 30-Year High Inflation Expectations

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

While previewing this week’s sparse US macro releases, I casually noted that the final read

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10 Comments on Fed Hit With ‘Anything But That’ Moment In 30-Year High Inflation Expectations

Biggest Home Sales Drop In Years Caps Dreadful US Data

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

Friday wasn’t a good day for US macro data. In addition to the worst update

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6 Comments on Biggest Home Sales Drop In Years Caps Dreadful US Data

US Services Sector Crashes Into Contraction As Upbeat Mood ‘Evaporates’

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

Don’t look now, but activity in the biggest part of the world’s largest economy just

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10 Comments on US Services Sector Crashes Into Contraction As Upbeat Mood ‘Evaporates’

Chinese Tech Rally Goes Vertical

February 21, 2025February 22, 2025

Laugh. Because it’s funny. When Chinese stocks get cookin,’ they tend to rally on a

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1 Comment on Chinese Tech Rally Goes Vertical

It All Comes Back To The Dollar

February 20, 2025February 20, 2025

What’s the proximate cause of America’s “losing” ways when it comes to international commerce, to

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10 Comments on It All Comes Back To The Dollar

Broken Clocks And Minor Miracles

February 20, 2025February 21, 2025

SocGen’s Albert Edwards sees something concerning in equities. Of course, you could say that every

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3 Comments on Broken Clocks And Minor Miracles

Head Games And A Compromised US President

February 20, 2025February 21, 2025

I’d be remiss — which in this case means wholly derelict in my capacity as

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21 Comments on Head Games And A Compromised US President

Scott Knows What You Wanna Hear

February 20, 2025February 21, 2025

Scott Bessent gets it. I mean, not the part about it being a potentially bad

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3 Comments on Scott Knows What You Wanna Hear

What If There’s A Depression?

February 19, 2025February 21, 2025

Nobody expects a recession. Ok, that’s not true. Let me rephrase: Almost nobody sees a

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10 Comments on What If There’s A Depression?

No More Cuts?

February 19, 2025February 20, 2025

The Fed’s on hold. The Fed’s on hold. The Fed’s on hold. Is the message

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1 Comment on No More Cuts?

Everyone’s In The Pool. But No Splash Yet

February 19, 2025February 19, 2025

Late last week, Goldman’s Scott Rubner cautioned that “everyone’s in the pool.” By that he

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4 Comments on Everyone’s In The Pool. But No Splash Yet

Tariffs Are Latest Challenge For Tortured US Housing Market

February 19, 2025February 20, 2025

Average mortgage rates in the US are the lowest this year, but would-be homeowners aren’t

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2 Comments on Tariffs Are Latest Challenge For Tortured US Housing Market

DOGE: Shut It Down Before It’s Too Damn Late

February 19, 2025February 20, 2025

To survey the macro-market news landscape mid-week is just to collect and arrange stories about

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18 Comments on DOGE: Shut It Down Before It’s Too Damn Late

‘US Exceptionalism’ Sidelined In Abrupt Investor Zeitgeist Shift

February 18, 2025February 19, 2025

A couple of days ago, while editorializing around the largest net inflow to European equity

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2 Comments on ‘US Exceptionalism’ Sidelined In Abrupt Investor Zeitgeist Shift

Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’

February 18, 2025

Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low

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3 Comments on Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’

It’s Not ‘Tough Love’ If He Hates You

February 18, 2025February 19, 2025

Donald Trump’s decision to cut Brussels and Kyiv out of tentative Ukraine settlement talks unfolding

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5 Comments on It’s Not ‘Tough Love’ If He Hates You

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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