Don’t look now, but activity in the biggest part of the world’s largest economy just contracted for the first time in two years.
Or at least according to mostly anecdotal data released on Friday.
Economists — bless their hearts — expected 53 from the preliminary read on S&P Global’s US services PMI for February. They got 49.7 instead. That was below every estimate.
As the chart shows, that’s a 25-month low, and the lackluster showing seemingly confirmed the slowdown tentatively tipped by January’s readout. February’s decline was the second consecutive outsized drop on the gauge.
“Optimism about the coming year slumped to its lowest since December 2022, except for last September, when business was unsettled by uncertainty ahead of the Presidential election,” the color accompanying the release said.
On the bright side, the manufacturing index printed 51.6, an eight-month high and the second straight reading north of the demarcation line separating expansion from contraction. Consensus there was 51.4. The composite index, at 50.4, was a 17-month low.
Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist, offered an overtly dour assessment. “The upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices,” he wrote, adding that in the face of “widespread concerns about the impact of federal government policies, ranging from spending cuts to tariffs and geopolitical developments, optimism about the year ahead has slumped to one of the gloomiest since the pandemic.”
So, in other words: People are worried about Donald Trump. Williamson didn’t say that exactly, but it was hard to extract any other interpretation from what he did say.
Weighing in on — I don’t really know, honestly — everything, I guess, Donald Trump said Friday that despite what you might’ve heard from “broken down losers, weak of mind and body,” he’s going to score “big WINS” for America. In fact, “it’s already happening,” according to Trump, and it’s only going to “get bigger and better” from here.
DODG, or the Department of Data Gerrymandering, apparently isn’t up and running yet. Give it time.
So how long until Trump realizes all his cheerleading about greatness and winning won’t bring back the animal spirits and he decides to throw Elon under the bus?
I’m still alternating between laughing at the absurdity of it all (a 78 year truthing all day while CPAC advocates for a third term for an incoherent old man who’s just as likely not to live long enough to run for a third term) and feeling the terror of what the US is becoming. If the economy does take a hard nosedive, all bets are off as to what happens from there.
Woke up this morning to see Elmo tweets calling CA Rep Schiff a criminal and a ghoul being confirmed to FBI. And this lovely note from Science Daily. It all makes sad sense. “Narcissists more likely to feel ostracized” https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/02/250220122625.htm
A nice J6 choir performance at the Kennedy Center ought to soothe your jangled nerves!
Also, The Onion has some thoughts on an older study of narcissism: https://theonion.com/study-parents-cause-narcissism-in-children-1819562565/
The future ride may be bumpy. Your pilot has turned on the fasten seatbelt sign for your safety.
I think I just heard the captain of my plane say ‘let’s open up the cabin doors and get some fresh air in here for a big beautiful ride you’ll never forget’.
The fox is in the henhouse. The roosters let him in.
The fox told them a better life for all would soon begin.
The roosters were so stupid, they rejoiced hearing the news
imagining that, with the fox, they all would get to schmooze.
The fox is in the henhouse. He plans to stuff his gut.
The roosters don’t know how, nor do they realize with what.
They think bringing the fox into their house was quite a coup.
Because the fox convinced them that was very smart to do.
The fox is in the henhouse. A massacre’s begun.
The roosters hear the racket and believe it’s all good fun.
They stand outside together and praise their wondrous luck.
But wonder why they now hear not a single chicken cluck.
The fox is in the henhouse. He bids the roosters “come!”
and naturally they do so, ‘cuz they’re just so cluckin’ dumb.
He snaps each little neck. Before they know it, they’re all dead.
They would have fared much better had they’d banished him instead.
Damn, another all-star comment today!!
Bravo!
It’s about time that consumers are starting to feel the consequences of the voters bad decision to vote for Trump. Well before the election was decided I told my son who is a MAGA that if the voters made the bad decision to vote for Trump that we would enter into a depression. Because all the economic policies he advocated for Tariffs and lowering taxes for the rich, would bankrupt our country. I didn’t think he had the constitutional ability to shut down the government, now that I’ve seen I’m wrong on that, the depression will come sooner than I thought. Because there are a lot of government jobs that don’t have a private sector equivalent. So it will take longer to find a new job.