Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’

Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low in a closely-watched monthly survey.

If you’re curious whether that’s a contrarian indicator, the answer’s “yes.”

Most readers (or a lot of you, anyway) are familiar with BofA’s Global Fund Manager survey, and some of you are apprised that the bank has a trading “rule” tied to self-reported fund manager cash levels. The figure below shows the annotated history of the cash level series.

At 3.5%, cash levels this month were the lowest since 2010, and near the lowest in the history of the poll.

The above-mentioned “cash rule,” says you buy global stocks when cash is at or above 5% and you sell equities when cash is at or below 4%.

Soooo… sell? Maybe, but remember: “Rule” is a bit of a misnomer. This is an indicative metric, which is a polite way of saying “for entertainment purposes only.”

Still, a near record-low cash level reading in the BofA poll underscores the notion that “everyone’s in the pool,” so to speak, and at a time when a popular, news-based measure of global policy uncertainty’s the highest since the onset of the pandemic.

(Cue some ominous music.)


 

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