Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low in a closely-watched monthly survey.
If you’re curious whether that’s a contrarian indicator, the answer’s “yes.”
Most readers (or a lot of you, anyway) are familiar with BofA’s Global Fund Manager survey, and some of you are apprised that the bank has a trading “rule” tied to self-reported fund manager cash levels. The figure below shows the annotated history of the cash level series.
At 3.5%, cash levels this month were the lowest since 2010, and near the lowest in the history of the poll.
The above-mentioned “cash rule,” says you buy global stocks when cash is at or above 5% and you sell equities when cash is at or below 4%.
Soooo… sell? Maybe, but remember: “Rule” is a bit of a misnomer. This is an indicative metric, which is a polite way of saying “for entertainment purposes only.”
Still, a near record-low cash level reading in the BofA poll underscores the notion that “everyone’s in the pool,” so to speak, and at a time when a popular, news-based measure of global policy uncertainty’s the highest since the onset of the pandemic.
(Cue some ominous music.)


Where is the Bull/Bear indicator?
4.8. Middling.