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‘US Exceptionalism’ Sidelined In Abrupt Investor Zeitgeist Shift
A couple of days ago, while editorializing around the largest net inflow to European equity funds in
“And yet, as BofA’s Michael Hartnett was keen to note, “decade-to-date, an average 81% of FMS investors have consistently viewed US equities as overvalued.” In other words, the perception that US shares are trading rich needn’t be, and hasn’t been, an obstacle to outperformance.
It’s soooo tempting for us old timers to focus too much on “valuation” measures rather than market cash flows. And more recently, “where’s the vix going?” (The algos don’t are about morality!)
Not to say that I don’t succumb to that now & then, even though I know it is foolhardy. I witnessed and internalized a living example of that when I was a spot bullion trader in 1979-1980. During the whole way up the RSI index was pegged at 99% which was said to be a clear sell signal. On the way down, that same RSI lingered close to zero, giving a clear buy signal. It was a good lesson I wish I had heeded even more than I have.
Sorry that you think I am always wrong even if I have made more for my clients than anyone else allive. Of course my trick has been trading in global govvies – (for gov types at very cheap fees) – investing in global, macro FX/cash. Gold is a sideline, but fascinating. The fact that gold was first this month is a bad sign for the world. It is a Trump mental confusion. As soon as Bessent says buy or revalue, it has peaked for the year (or more). With the U.S. course, the world is going to try gold at some outlandish level – it is a way to clear defaults (it is better than killing Jews in the middle ages). I know it won’t work, but. It will not be crypto as no government with armies ann bambs is going to let the txing and printing power to be taken away. Your practical ideas wold be appreciated.