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Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters
Market participants are waking up to an uncomfortable reality regarding the near-term domestic macro
Awooga! Awooga! We need more oil/gas at lower prices right now!
Seems to me that we either end up in the no landing or hard landing scenario. Maybe I lack imagination, but I have a hard time imagining scenarios that result in 2-4 cuts given the circumstances. I expect Trump will royally screw things up and that’ll either mean inflation takes off and we get no cuts or he tanks the economy and brings about disinflation via recession. Right now, I’m leaning more toward the latter.
My personal economic uncertainty is increasing, so I am undertaking a comprehensive budget review and overhaul to reign in my out of control spending. I’ve recently hired half a dozen art history majors to assist, and as soon as I’ve got them on-board, I’ll be heading down to Staples to pick up a few thousand dollars worth of file folders and sticky notes at full retail prices. I expect to make myself great again “in about two weeks,” if not sooner.
This is a really interesting post. Are you sure you don’t, instead, have a “revenue” problem as opposed to a spending problem?
I am addressing the revenue side by putting a unilateral tariff on all my goods and service providers, but only after I finished up my purchases at Staples.
🙂
Awesome to hear you’ll be great again, Furious A.
Friday’s data definitely is the catalyst here, at least for eyes being opened to some very much in plain sight risks.
US investors are finally waking up and questioning their stalwart beliefs that Trump will be “business friendly” and would not do anything that would weaken the stock market because, it was said, he views the S&P index as an indicator of his success. Planning is now underway for a ceremony to bury and bid farewell to those bullish notions.
I’m not sure why anyone is surprised. During the Madison Garden torchlight rally and in the following days, Elon Musk said spending cuts imposed by the Mr. Trump would “necessarily involve some temporary hardship.” You were forewarned.
A more interesting question just starting to be murmured about is just who is in charge in Washington DC? The whole radical DOGE campaign to “slash the government” was never a priority emphasized by DJT on the campaign trail, nor in his first term. (Can you remember how he treated Paul Ryan?) Sure, rooting out his enemies was an oft-stated goal, but not burning down the whole government. What he focused on was deporting brown-skinned immigrants and using tariffs, not to level the playing field, but to force US and foreign-owned manufacturing companies to produce goods for the US market in the US. As well as banning all DEI initiatives in the public and private sectors.
So who is behind the whole DOGE crusade and efforts to circumvent the legal system to allow the unfettered pursuit of shareholder returns? It is doubtful that the president has the vision or capacity to carry out all of the policies outlined in Project 2025. It sure looks as if he has been given immigration, tariffs and DEI to run while being told to leave the rest to others.
You decide!
Great speculation.
Yes. But the first two paragraphs are hardly so. I’m amazed how complacent we all are in the face of these obvious risks. Bets on wide tail outcomes usually are unrewarding, but this one smells differently.
If one’s investment experience is ten or even fifteen years, I guess assuming the best makes total sense. Perhaps things ARE different this time?
Where’s that fellow geezer John Taylor?
Who’s behind it all…I say the BBBB … the Bitter Billionaire Boys Brigade…
Investors are supposed to be decent assessors of executive talent; yet the market seemed to have swallowed Trump 2.0 whole, and is only now discovering that the bait was poisoned. This calls for some serious introspection: How could it not see what was coming?
Burning down the government is Sir Donald’s path to being Chancellor. In the first term he weakened the Legislative branch and completely took over the Judiciary. His government by declaration employs his corporate strategy: do everything until they stop you. Very soon he will control it all and most of us won’t have even noticed. I’m not sure Congress has even met this year. Trump’s running Orban’s playbook very effectively so far. His problem is that there are no experts under him. He hasn’t got the intellectual muscle to pull this off.