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MECA!
Make recessions great again.
Sorry. That's the worst kind of cheap, unimaginative punchline, which is to say the sort of "too obvious" humor I wouldn't typically traffic in, but... well, it felt somehow obligatory.
How about MECA, instead? "Make expansions contractions again."
On the heels of Thursday's and Friday's US macro data, the bottom fell out for Q1 GDP tracking on the Atlanta Fed's widely-cited "nowcast." What was a wholly respectable 2.3% running estimate of the real growth impulse
That doesn’t even account for the impending government shutdown or tariffs yet either.
Add all that to the embarrassing display by our President and VP today and you get an ugly, ugly picture of America. Where’s the bottom going to be?
It’s beginning to look like this time (T2) it might just be different. All the other guys have been watching the game films from the last time. Now they got it. This could be the Eagles pounding the Chiefs.
Exactly.
Can’t wait to hear your thoughts about this shit show in the Oval Office.
H, I’ve read that the swing is largely due to importers front running potential tarriffs (imports get subtracted, exports added to the calculation). Does this take have merit?
Perhaps. But the math is tricky because, as I recall, inventory builds are a positive in the calculations. Will one offset the other?? Paging Mr Lucky!
Then, on the other side of the coin, consumers are said to be pulling purchasing forward in anticipation of tariffs. In that narrative, consumption will weaken once that precautionary buying runs its course. It evokes consumer behavior when inflation goes vertical (Brazil 25 years ago & such) = buy now before prices go even higher.
But you know how much respect I have for economic models.
That is somwhat true, but it is not a downward push on these numbers.
H-Man, the last real recession was the 08-09 real estate debacle, Covid was a hiccup as far as recessions go in 2020 due to the Fed flooding the economy with cash. So maybe a real recession will show up in 25.