Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
The Devil’s Greatest Trick
[Editor's note: In consideration of the historic events which unfolded at The White House on February 28, 2025, I've penned an ad hoc Monthly Letter to mark the moment. The previously scheduled Monthly Letter, entitled "The Great Depression," will be published later this month.]
The Maestro and the insomniac
I still have the picture. I keep it on a thumb drive. (Don't worry, comrade. It's not kompromat. It's just a memento.)
He told me the backstory. The innocuous specifics, the unremarkable
Yes, I’ve plainly opened a bit of a Pandora’s box here. If you get it, good for you, but please exercise some common sense when you comment, where that means be at least as oblique and indirect as I was, and preferably more so. The point isn’t to stir up personal controversy. The point, as ever, is to write compelling articles about current events. Nothing more, nothing less.
Duly noted.
Love the “corps”e caption behind Trump. Clever.
Thanks h
Was waiting for this article the whole day. I’m a bit more hopeful though; against every movement there will be a counter movement. And I can’t wait for it to materialise.
The timing on the Oval Office blow up left something to be desired for me. I had just finished that “Great Depression” Monthly Letter I mentioned at the top here, and I had it scheduled to publish yesterday evening. I thought I was free and clear for the day, and then the whole Zelensky thing happened. I wrote a summary of the Oval Office drama, and it sounded just like every other summary out there, so I scrapped it and decided to just write a new Monthly on Saturday morning.
Appreciate the extra effort.
Ah, yes I did not want to sound ungrateful by the way. I just really look forward to your in depth, analytical reporting in times as these. It’s difficult to find any solid news outlet that isn’t overly skewed one way or the other or that sugarcoats or exaggerates everything that’s happening. I hope you will continue for years to come.
Thank you as always, H. We sincerely appreciate your words, presentation and candor.
Just looking at the headline and headings is ominous. Now if we can learn something from this all or if this can be a watershed moment as some have called it. We shall see.
The Devil’s Greatest Trick
The Maestro and the insomniac
The Devil
The useful idiot
Being clever
Even though nothing that has happened under Trump 2.0 has surprised me, witnessing the press conference yesterday was still though to swallow. The dismantling of US democratic institutions, of NATO and the West is happening faster than I expected and with zero pretense from Trump, his cronies or Musk, as to what they are trying to accomplish. They are acting without fear of retribution or attempts to conceal their goals because they are not worried about checks from other institutions (public or private) or the rule of law. Aligning the administration with Putin so brazenly shows how little concern there is in the White House about pushback from Congress, the courts or the electorate. Becoming a pariah state by rejecting “Western values” and dissolving NATO means little to these people and their hard core supporters. MAGA might not recognize the dangers of living in a world where the US is mostly hated without the allies we had so far, it might not have immediate repercussions, but it will have repercussions. I will remain forever grateful to this nation for all the opportunities I have enjoyed as a naturalized American, yesterday I kept remembering how elated I felt the day I became a US citizen many years ago, I remembered driving by the California coast on a sunny afternoon thinking “this is my country now, no one can take it away from me.” I was wrong.
I felt deep shame yesterday, about who we are, what we have become. I’m not naive, I know my history and the role US interests have played in multiple instances of injustice and suffering around this planet, but this country also represented in many occasion the only true beacon of hope for many, we have always been a nation in conflict with itself, but we have never completely abdicated all ideals based on justice and freedom. We are no longer a nation where these terms have meaning, real or otherwise.
Worth reading: https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-its-time-reconsider-european-army
Hell yes they need to raise an army. Like yesterday.
The world is now in several blocks with fewer norms or rules. There is a high likelihood of a major war breaking out somewhere fairly soon.
You are doing what you can do. And you are doing it well.
So far, Trump is Putin’s tactical nuke
I do not know how he did it, but Putin has performed a masterstroke.
Now how to make him regret he ever tried it.
Perhaps there’s a silver lining in all this. It’s clear that what happened at the White House was deliberate and premeditated. What remains uncertain is whether Zelensky was in on this charade or caught off guard. Regardless, the political theatrics may ultimately achieve what the U.S. has been pushing for all along—getting Europe to step up its NATO defense commitments.
I think it’s too early to conclude that it’s game over for Ukraine or the NATO alliance. In negotiations, leverage and illusions are often necessary to achieve desired outcomes. This may be part of a broader strategy to shift responsibility onto Europe while maintaining overall Western support. If so, it could mark the beginning of a new phase rather than the endgame.
There could be a silver lining. But I doubt it was intentional.
The Devil’s Greatest Trick is an apt description of events. It seems that the bulk of the US citizens have not yet formed a proper idea of how far (and how unable/unwilling this ship is to ever go back – a combination of machinery and commanding officers) we’ve drifted since quietly untethering via the last election. This may become important during the next midterm election, if there is such an election.
Meanwhile, I agree that Putin’s involvement is governed in large part by his status as invisible master. I think he will do whatever he wants, divided by any notion of who will/what will rise up to stop him. In the meanwhile, best to not goad anyone to looking for/attributing causes to him directly. The sweet spot surrounding Putin right now contains, among other goodies, the fact that Trump/Vance&co are very willing lightning rods. So Putin might be more active than we would normally think. Xi himself has to be wondering about these combinations. Trump to Putin is Vance to Trump. Who knows who the attack dog will bite. If Trump/Putin can figure out a distraction, sufficiently dislocated from him, that supports emergency measures, then I doubt there will be elections. How to make a proper distraction without moving the doomsday clock too much.
Yet, on the brighter(?) side, one likes to think there are limits to bad governance which is powered by putting millions of people in prison, ie it simply cannot be sustained and some sort of revolution occurs – on a dismal hand, some say that such gulags are already invented, debugged, and running quite well – sometimes called rat-wheels and/or vast wastelands of no-opportunity. On another, more flaming hand, there is a price to pay to mobilize a people’s revolution. Has been coined and recoined – The Great Ravine is perhaps the latest minting.
So much for ‘leader of the free world’. America’s strength is being the largest and strongest economy, the dollar being the primary currency of global finance and having the military might to back it up. I can’t understand how Trump has concluded that isolationism and actively attacking our partners in the western democratic alliance will make us great again. I can’t imagine any of our traditional friends being willing to lend us a hand when we need it. Could it be that Trump thinks global chaos will allow him to declare marshall law and pronounce himself king for life. I used to tell myself that was ridiculous.
I’m with you. I think Tolkien pretty much laid it all out… somehow those giving themselves to the pursuit of power gladly trade away, (or simply lose without noticing) the ability to see themselves, or the judgements implied by ‘concluding’ anything. Not to mention notice when they’ve contradicted themselves within (what seem to the rest of us) to be a very short time frame. Look at all the GOP power mongers – all the contradicting they’ve been doing, and how they flat out don’t care, don’t really notice anymore. They only notice/see destructive power, i guess because that’s the only type of power that can be mapped to a single person/action. To actually build something up takes a power shared between multiple people. I have to say, it’s mind blowing to watch Musk devolve/sell out to this pursuit of power.
It’s a hell of a thing. Of course it wouldn’t be the end if Europe could pull it together militarily. As a European I sincerely doubt it.
The keep you up at night thing is not just Russia, but the possibility that China and N. Korea could now openly support Russia in its military goals. You think this guy would do anything to stop that, or that anyone would challenge him about it, given what we’ve seen? I asked Grok 3 which is very lucid (I wish Mr Musk would talk to it) to gather information and evaluate the possibility of increased cooperation between these countries. It estimated 60-70% chance of increased cooperation and 20-30% chance of a unified military front. Let’s hope for the best I guess?
If we do go back to the 20th century, I think we also go back to captain Kaarna’s famous analysis (for fans of Nordic literature).
Germany is extremely weak right now. It’s fate’s irony that it’s the US that has wanted to keep it militarily weak up to this point.
H, great article. Minus your vast knowledge and creative writing I’ve been saying a lot of what you just wrote for several years. In my small universe it does not change things.
The Putin iceberg has been floating toward America’s shore for a while. From an old poem; Passenger – “captain, is that an iceberg on the horizon?” Captain – “yes madam.” Passenger – “what if we run into it?” Captain – “madam, the iceberg will move right along as if nothing ever happened!”
We see the iceberg, what do we do about it as individuals? Acton. I know what my wife and I do every day, tactical I know!
Harari suggests Homo Sapiens defeated others by using “imagination” to scale large groups around a common fiction, eliminating smaller groups like Neanderthals with their size. Isn’t that the liberal problem today? Liberals are fragmented compared to conservatives because they prioritize literal, scientific facts (generalizing and there are other reasons) which do not scale as well as imagination, lies, and gods. We need everyone to align around a new imagination LOL….little truth in every joke?
Leaving aside the dreadful atmospherics and the long term implications of U.S. withdrawal from the role of hegemon, the immediate issue is the role of “security guarantees” (NATO lite?). Trump claims Putin’s “guarantees” are sufficient. But there is a question of whether any U.S. guaranty would be meaningful given Trump’s explicit withdrawal from so-called Western leadership along with unilateral threats to Denmark, Canada, Panama etc.. That leaves a divided NATO/EU as possible guarantor and the world shattered into a system of individual states (some with nukes) each with its own peculiar ambitions. World War III? Perhaps not, but lots of local wars without the restraints offered by the threat of nuclear apocalypse.
Inasmuch as U.S. hegemony did not preclude international disasters —- Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel/Palestine—one might be grateful for the isolationist pivot but for the alternative reality. I guess one should be wary of for what one wishes.
I don’t see how the EU could ever have a military presence- an unelected bureaucracy that would have financial and leadership control over missions, weapons and soldiers. No way would the voters in the individual European countries allow that to happen. If, however, the EU was somehow able to organize and fund a EU level military force, I would not be surprised if the individual European countries staff the ranks from their growing immigrant population that can’t find jobs. Europe could decrease transfer payments to immigrants and, instead pay them to be soldiers.
Unfortunately, just when we really need NATO, we realize how truly broken it actually is- so hopefully, this is a “wake up” call and we don’t instead find out that NATO is broken beyond repair (US and Poland can’t carry NATO).
It isn’t just military might either- European countries are still purchasing LNG/oil directly and indirectly from Russia, which is helping to fund the Russian war efforts. Green energy plans need to be “back burnered”.
I have my doubts that the televised Oval Office conversation between Trump,Vance and Zelensky was legitimate. Trump is telling the American people that he is being transparent, but his actions are starting to say otherwise (Epstein and JFK files will be released- except only a handful of pages, $3B to Israel – without approval, executive orders that clearly exceed established power, etc.).
Unlike Sun Tzu, Trump creates chaos, watches to see how people respond and then decides what to do, based on the options available after chaos has occurred.
I literally think he has no idea how this will go. “We’ll see!”.
I agree. Putin’s resources are severely strained, especially human resources. He can’t even finish off the Ukraine so far. However, whatever Trump does, we can’t stop Putin. That’s partly why the partial conciliation to get a cease fire. He has to give stuff away. We have a trillion dollar military budget, four times the size of China’s and if they invade Taiwan, nothing we can do there either. I’d bet if China wanted the island, they could put a million troops there in six months and we have nothing much past Seal Team Six. Right now I think Russia is theoretically in the catbird seat. And only a close alliance with China and the US will stop him. And we volunteered to let him do it for a second time. And oh, Putin is also pals with No Kor the current hacker kings.
Catbird seat?
Greater than 20% interest rates.
Chased out of the Black Sea
Lost a portion of Kursk and cannot take it back.
Refineries commonly on fire.
Using civilian vehicles to move army around, see how that works as thaw starts.
The only gamble that has paid off for them is Trump. There are limits to that relationship.
I see Hegseth just announced the end of “offensive” cyberwarfare against Russia. How many more “friends” are we going to roll over for?
Is this part of the presient’s brilliant 12-dimensional chess strategy that Little Marco spoke of this morning?
From the data security world:
https://gizmodo.com/trumps-defense-secretary-hegseth-orders-cyber-command-to-stand-down-on-all-russia-operations-2000570343?utm_source=gizmodo.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=share
The article/ad hoc monthly did not disappoint. I always appreciate the way you view geopolitical events and the potential implications. Thanks, H.
Sorry Walt, but you underestimate Putin. He brought the hoards of immigrants to Europe on 2015. Ostensibly to exacerbate divisions within well-meaning (and naive at that tiime) European countries. He had practiced that idea with Somalis fleeing war, who came to Finland via Russia years before.
Many people have underestimated Vladdy, I am one of these. I am however a nobody with limited access to knowledge. It is wise to not underestimate him and the Kremlin. They are organized, determined and disciplined.
Putin didn’t intervene in Syria to exacerbate refugee flows. That’s just not accurate.
Maybe that was a “happy” consequence, but it certainly wasn’t the primary objective.
Comrade Trump and Comrade Vance, with Zelensky took their chance, to perform a little dance for their hero, Vladimir.
With such grace and such class, they kissed Putin’s ass, to prove not a day would pass they’d not do his bidding here.
They impressed their dear Vladdy, (Trump and Vance’s Russian daddy) who most view as just a baddy, but they view as their ‘special friend’.
Doing “The Dance of Horse’s Asses” they proved no one else surpasses these two traitorous jackasses, when dictators they defend.
At this point, why is Xi waiting to take Taiwan?
Thank you, H. It was a depressing day to witness the end of the NATO alliance. But two thoughts hit me:
If it is the end of the period of American hegemony, that might not be such a bad thing. Would we suffer attacks by those who despise our record of interference? Nah, we still have the largest military and the best geography on the planet. But of course the biggest risk is what happens elsewhere in the world in the void that we’re creating. Our economy will remain the largest through sheer force of size and momentum.
Secondly, of course, is that Trump really only has two years to grab as much power and wealth as he can. No doubt that he will, and I have to concede that we still run the risk of him creating a state of marshall law to retain power, but that is hopefully still less likely an outcome. The more brazen he gets, the more likely that the fall of Trumpism will finally occur and at a speed greater than its putrid rise.
Every empire had, at one time, the largest (or most capable) military. Every empire also had, at one time, the largest economy.
Empires rise and fall.
Excellent. But 39 comments as of the time of my own? I think y’all are overreacting. Before you know it, Trump will have fixed NATO, which will be confirmed by a snappy name change, say NOTA-MCA.
I don’t have anything of a high-level to add, but wanted to underscore a couple ironies in this broad-reaching post – that Putin’s close-up chicken-egg magic coincides with absurd egg price hysteria that seems to have partially-blinded a good part of the country to anything else going on, and that the Ariadne that Cobb is speaking to has since transitioned from Ellen to Elliott, which means they have become persona non “genda” to the MAGA-verse.
Prior to reading this article I had already come to the conclusion that the entire spectacle was a planned performance. It occurred to me while reading some comments that it wasn’t just the Americans who were performing. Zelenskyy seemed to have been prepared for what he experienced. I was impressed that he handled his emotions so well, but maybe he had known what was going to happen and he came to the US to perform as well?
Trump and Vance absolutely were performing for Putin, Russian state media was even allowed in and permitted to ask a question. Perhaps Zelenskyy knew this and saw opportunity to make hay?
Europe has long been looking for a leader that could unite the disparate countries within it. While the US provided overall leadership, this problem wasn’t immediate and could be ignored. Friday, the problem went from not immediate to a crisis almost overnight. Zelenskyy is the unifying force that America used to be for democratically minded nations.
Ukraine has been trying to get accepted into NATO and EU since before Putin’s invasion. By invading Ukraine, Putin made the urgency behind this acceptance more apparent. He also failed to quickly eliminate Ukraine and, after 3 years, has made it clear that Ukraine IS NATO. All of the military support they have received echoes the support they would receive as a member nation and they serve as the front lines in a conflict where their position is the position of NATO.
The US has abandoned NATO and western democracies are faltering. Ukraine is serving as the bulwark against Russian aggression for NATO and the EU. NATO and the EU lack strong unifying leadership to rally disparate cultures, languages, and ideas around. Zelenskyy, on international television, may have just been auditioning for that job.
I don’t think Zelensky knew what was going to happen.
Kaiser Soze. Great movie.