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US Jobs Report Looms With Traders On Slowdown Watch
It's jobs week in the US, and the numbers better not disappoint.
The nascent slowdown narrative which pushed 10-year Treasury yields under 4.25% for the first time since early December is entering its third week. An underwhelming NFP headline, particularly if preceded by a poor read on ISM services (i.e., an ISM readout that "confirms" the signal from S&P Global's US services PMI) could rekindle "hard landing " concerns, and we're not in a "bad news is good news" environment vis-à-vis the
It’s not just the repercussions for the economy we should worry about in regards to Musk’s hatchet job. It may be a week, a month, a year, five years, but bad things will happen as government services falter. I don’t know if it’ll be social security checks not showing up on time, planes falling out of the sky, massive security breaches and hacks on our systems, or disease outbreaks, but it’s not a question of “if” at this point. We’ll be able to tie a direct line from Musk’s actions to some very bad outcomes.
The North Korean Black Hats are loaded and ready, make no mistakes. Large hospital systems, air traffic, power, etc and all on the list.
The NFP narrative that I don’t see talked about anywhere is that starting late January a large number of employees stopped showing up for work for fear they would be disappeared by ICE. With approx half (depending on the estimate/source) of jobs created in the past 2-3 years coming from immigration, the idea that we’ll have a steady NFP print seems unlikely. We’ll almost definitely be below 100k with a negative print possible.
I don’t expect it to be a trend, but I think it will impact Feb. The real NFP down trend doesn’t likely start until later in the year.
Don’t worry, the obfuscation of economic data will begin, and we can all happily return to betting on America.
“You know that governments historically have messed with GDP,” Lutnick said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2
Oh, they’re absolutely going to mess with the data. That’s a foregone conclusion. Anyone in Turkey could tell you what’s coming: https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-fires-statistics-chief-after-record-inflation-11643456492
Lutnick is looking to leverage his station from the most fawning bootlick in the room to his own entirely new department — DODG — Department of Data Gerrymandering. Everything Trump touches dies has now linked up with everyone wants to be Musk.
Feels like we’re getting a look from “in the room where it happened” when Trump went bankrupt 6 times.
From Bloomberg – “No room left for Mexico or for Canada,” Trump told reporters Monday when asked if the US’s North American neighbors could reach a deal to put off the duties. “They’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/trump-barrels-toward-tariff-barrage-on-canada-mexico-and-china?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=6RluRBXJ.