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US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck
"Oh, Ey!" as the Sopranos cast might put it.
Real personal spending in the US receded sharply last
Thanks. It’s funny how almost all of the mainstream headlines solely focused on the inflation portion of the release.
I wonder how the president will react to the balance of trade number … ….
A big trade deficit most often flags a healthy economy. My bet is that businesses and consumers bought more imports to front run tariffs. We are likely to see a drop off after that.
Yesterday, I read that shipping rates are going down as new capacity is being added and pull-forward purchases are already stocked up in warehouses. I wouldn’t want to be in the international shipping business right now.
Does Trump have the guts to go through with his tariffs next week? If so, what might already be a significant slowdown might come to a dead stop as my guess is a lot of importers will assume the tariffs won’t last long and will hold off on buying more supplies for a while and work on drawing down that inventory.
On their own, all these paper cuts might not do much to the economy, but as you said earlier this week, too many paper cuts can lead to (a very painful) death.
The GDP now forecast just fell off a cliff
Yes, it surely did.
Stephanie Kelton had an elegant depiction of what happens when you cut the federal deficit and the trade deficit at the same time, if I may … https://x.com/StephanieKelton/status/1895113376713355305
That last sentence kind of buried the lede, no?