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Consumer Mood Darkens, Inflation Expectations Soar In Dour Sentiment Readout
The preliminary read on America's marquee gauge of consumer sentiment was very rough for February, a
Somewhat related, I’ve seen a few articles reporting a poll which shows support for Musk’s influence on Trump is falling. Even among Republicans.
Such as this one:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5129353-gop-support-for-musk-influence-with-trump-falls-dramatically-poll/
It would be interesting to identify particular industries or companies that might be impacted by a skew between Democrats’ and Republicans’ economic sentiment.
TSLA is one that might come to mind. Buyers by now are probably fairly evenly split between Dem and Rep. In 2022, Tesla owners were about 38% Dem vs 30% Rep (per surveys) but I think the gap has been closing. However, even just half your customers feeling glum will hurt, and if some of that half are starting to loathe you . . . in January, TSLA sales fell a lot in the largest EU markets (-54% in Germany, -63% in France, and -12% in the UK). In the largest US market, California, monthly sales aren’t available (to me, anyway) but TSLA sales fell -12% in 2024. For likely unrelated reasons, TSLA’s January sales in China fell -12% in a growing market. Wait, is Tesla still a car company?
What other companies come to mind? It is probably easier to look at retailers with skewed physical store distribution, as done by this blogger https://medium.com/towards-data-science/are-you-a-trader-joes-democrat-or-a-walmart-republican-a7b156131435
Caveat: consumer behavior is often inconsistent with sentiment. Consumers (especially higher income) tend to see the country’s situation as worse than their own, future worries don’t dictate today’s buying, and economic strictures benefit some value/discount retailers.
JohnL The waffle House, Piggly Wiggly and Tractor Supply immediately jump to mind as does Bass Pro Shop/Cabelas.
But the #1 idea must be the place our Dear Leader affectionately mentions now & then: Cracker Barrel.
Avon Products (AVP)?
Manufacturer of some of the finest orange self tanning products.