Did the US consumer just crack?
I’ve asked that I don’t know how many times over the last three or four years, and it’s usually a rhetorical question: The answer’s always “no.”
But maybe this time’s different. Maybe the consumption bonanza’s over. Nominal spending across the world’s largest economy contracted 0.9% last month from December, retail sales figures released ahead of the long holiday weekend showed. Economists blamed the weather.
As the figure shows, that counts as the largest drop since March of 2023.
More surprising than the downside on the headline (economists collectively expected a 0.2% drop) was a wholly anomalous disappointment on control group sales, which fell 0.8%, likewise the biggest drop in nearly two years and, more remarkable, a dramatic miss versus consensus, which saw a 0.3% gain.
As BMO’s Ian Lyngen noted, the control group print single-handedly shaved 1.4ppt from the three-month average annualized pace of underlying retail sales growth in the US, which is now 3.2%. Q1 GDP tracking will take a hit from this release.
The lackluster showing comes on the heels of what, according to the advance read on Q4 GDP, was a very strong spending impulse into year-end, and amid a deterioration in consumer sentiment tied to tariff concerns. It could be that households pulled forward their spending into November and December in anticipation of higher prices during 2025’s “Trade War 2.0.”
Remember: The retail sales release tallies nominal spending, and inflation was warm last month, according to this week’s BLS data. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from that juxtaposition.
It’s never wise to make sweeping claims about the economy based on one report — particularly when the economy in question lives and dies by services spending and the only services category in the report showed a gain — but if you’re inclined to that sort of folly, you could argue the control group print for January suggests a tipping point for the previously incorrigible American consumer.
This is so obvious. 80% of the U.S. population is losing money every month – the math is totally clear. With assets weakening for most americans and debt climbing, the spending must eventually slow. The 20% gain from higher raes but the 80% are losers. We as a country were idiots and voted for Trump’s false promises. Now Trump is ignoring inlation and it is going up fast. The hammer is falling on the average family.
Sorry, everyone, this is my fault – my economic boycott was more impactful than I expected.
In all seriousness, I have been cutting my personal spending specifically because of Trump. Obviously, I don’t think my personal spending has any impact whatsoever at a macro level and realize this is only one data point, but it’s my small form of protest. If economic pain is what it takes to break Trump’s grip on the MAGA crowd, I’ll be happy to do my part.
On another note, I can’t imagine laying of 200k federal employees will be good for the economy. I hope all those people getting fired by Il Duce win massive lawsuits against the administration. Pretty soon, this administration won’t have any lawyers left to represent them and we’re only 4 weeks in.
You are not alone! Myself and 14 friends of mine have stopped spending as much as possible, when we do, we target friendlies. There is a Don’t Spend Feb 27, all day strike gaining momentum – buy must haves only. And I’m sure you know Canada has a US boycotting growing. It just might add up one day, hopefully before midterms!
LOL I did the same thing. After the election I started buying anything I could think of that seemed like something I would need to purchase in the next 4 years.
Pfft, that’s nothing. Wait until consumer feel actual tariffs, not just the fear of tariffs.
I realize that Bessent says inflation from tariffs will be slight and brief, but he appears to not be the strong bulwark of sanity that investors thought he’d be.
I again note that as a macro hedge fund manager he oversaw the departure of 90% of his launch AUM.
nonne of yo above are in “THE “BELOW MEIiAN CLASS” The can hardly afford to keep the spending where they feel that it should be. Those were the Trump voters. The have no choice they are borrowing to keep going – that is what has to bite – not a few of us 20% tightening our belts a notch – WE DON’T COUNT in the game. I believe these numbers show that Trump is screwing the MAGA voters.
Don’t retail sales normally dip in January?
Yes, but that is supposed to be compensated for in the seasonal adjustments (paging Mr. Lucky).
That said, it does not impact the year-over-year numbers.
Thanks.
We are back to real life, after covid and the post covid party we had.
I have been on a personal spending strike, my only hope is more people strike with me. As the price of everything goes up, it only makes sense that more people will have to cut back. But I am also seeing that Trump is trying to keep his promises that will ultimately destroy this country. In fact I won’t be surprised that once the economic numbers start reflecting the depression that Trump will cause that he will shut down the departments that release the numbers.
I have been on a personal spending strike, my only hope is more people strike with me. As the price of everything goes up, it only makes sense that more people will have to cut back. But I am also seeing that Trump is trying to keep his promises that will ultimately destroy this country.