Metrics and benchmarks. You need them if you’re going to assess outcomes in the context of policy.
Another thing you need is time. Time to determine if, in fact, a given policy prescription is working to effectuate the kind of change you’re after.
When it comes to the flow of illegal drugs into the US from Mexico and, to a far lesser extent (so much less, in fact, that the US is a net exporter of illegal fentanyl to its northern neighbor), Canada, Donald Trump has no well-defined metrics, no unambiguous benchmarks and, apparently, no time either. In layman’s terms, he’s unserious about solving the problem or, dumbed down even further, he’s full of sh-t.
On February 3, Trump gave Mexico and Canada a month to curtail the flow of fentanyl into the US without offering much (if anything) in the way of ideas about how the two countries might achieve such a feat and without specifying how The White House intended to gauge success, thereby setting up (guaranteeing and ensuring) failure.
Four weeks ago, in a hopeless effort to appease Trump, Claudia Sheinbaum said she’d send Mexican troops to the border, and Justin Trudeau said he’d appoint a fentanyl czar, both leaders knowing full well that even if Trump gave them targets to hit for, say, border seizures and they hit them, Trump would almost surely find an excuse to implement tariffs anyway.
Sure enough, Trump on Thursday cited “this scourge” (i.e., drugs) in announcing that the postponed 25% tariffs on America’s neighbors will go into effect next week, on schedule, “until it stops, or is seriously limited,” again without specifying what that actually means in terms of qualitative and quantitative outcomes. China will get hit with another incremental tariff hike of 10%. For good measure, Trump reiterated his threat to impose reciprocal duties on all nations which currently impose tariffs on the US starting in April.
As usual, he closed his memo, posted to TruthSocial, with “Thank you for your attention to this matter,” a phrase Trump started using several years ago in an effort to pair an official cadence with sarcastic disdain without realizing how ridiculous it sounds coming from Tommy Boy.
The dollar promptly surged, on track for its second best day of 2025. That hit risk sentiment, which was already fragile.
All sorts of very serious people weighed in with remarks to financial media outlets, and none of them were willing to state the unvarnished truth which is as plain as Elon Musk is a fascist: There’s no hope (none) that anything good will come of this dark frivolity, and Trump has no plan.
Again — and for the umpteenth time — using leverage to extract concessions isn’t the hallmark of a legendary dealmaker and certainly not evidence of any sort of genius. It’s just the nature of negotiating. There’s nothing uniquely “artful” about Trump’s approach. He’s not a “dealmaker,” he’s an extortionist which is — you know — “fine” until he tries to extort you, which he will eventually if Americans keep giving him the rope he needs to hang us all.
Setting aside laments for American democracy — and coming quickly full circle — it’s not good for markets when investors can’t make out the contours of what it might look like for other countries to meet Trump’s demands. As things stand currently, his demands aren’t just insufficiently specific or unrefined, they’re completely nebulous, and I think that’s partly on purpose.
I used the figure below in one of this month’s Weeklies, and I wanted to present it again here to illustrate just how determined Trump seemingly is to engineer trade headlines.
Those are news-based measures of category specific policy uncertainty for the US. Trump generates an enormous amount of media coverage for his tariff wars, and markets are compelled to trade that “news.” It’s a nauseating whipsaw, and to call it asinine would be to materially understate the case.
The trade balderdash comes as Musk works to gut federal agencies through mass layoffs and attrition, on the heels of the worst inflation outbreak in a generation and at a terrifying geopolitical juncture. And that’s all to say nothing of the existentially fractious character of domestic politics in the US, where Trump continues to call forth the worst in all of us — because vitriol is the oxygen for his fire.
Who knows if Trump will grant Canada and Mexico another reprieve. What I do know, and to reiterate, is that nothing good will come of this charade for anyone. Not overall, on net, and probably not even for the individual businesses and industries that should theoretically benefit from protectionism.
America has a lot of problems. The quick fixes peddled by populists won’t fix any of them. In fact, empty promises will almost invariably make it all much, much worse.
From the Globe & Mail, ‘”At the end of the 30 days, they have to prove to the President that they’ve satisfied him to that regard,” [Commerce Secretary] Lutnick said. “If they have, then he’ll give them a pause. Or, he won’t.”
Mr. Trump said “It’s going to be hard to satisfy” him[.]’
As our host likes to say, the jokes write themselves.
Yeah. It’s so farcical that I don’t understand why someone, somewhere in some foreign capital doesn’t just say, “F-ck off ‘Tariff Man,’ do your worst. Or call back when you’re serious. Because we’ve got more important things to do right now than play pretend with you.”
They need a Weird Al parody of Rocket Man – we’ll call it Tariff Man.
“And I think it’s gonna be a long, long time
Till markets brings me round again to find
I’m not the businessman MAGA thinks I am at home
Oh no no no, I’m a TARIFF MAAAAAAN”
Exactly!!
2025-26 will be rough years. Buy hey egg prices will be lower because the middle class won’t be able to afford them at 2.50/dozen so the price will have to fall further
Eggs are $8+ in LA
Okay, lets examine the ledger underpinning Trump tariffs vis a vis Canada. US sends more fentanyl to Canada, that Canada sends to the US border. Yes, Canada has a surplus in physical good (mainly oil and gas which the US needs); but the US has a huge surplus in services imported to Canada, as well as, a large surplus in capital flows (including foreign purchases of US equities and bonds). Being the world’s reserve currency confers huge benefits to the US. The capital account surplus — the mirror image of the current account deficit — helps keep interest rates lower than they otherwise would be. The world invests over $50 trillion in the US while it invests $29 trillion elsewhere.
America chose to be a consumer economy, importing cheap goods from elsewhere and to stoke it’s economy and its massive debt through lots of fiscal stimulus. So the US is also vulnerable now. Trump has pitted his country against the world in a trade war where others have lots of leverage together, e.g., drive up the cost of things the US needs (water, metals, energy, electricity) find other providers of services, vacation elsewhere, sell US treasuries, bonds and equities. The US citizenry are divided – it has the threat of China, Russia, Iran et al – and now its former allies. Canada included is united against it. I say bring it Donald. If there is no way out, Canada is going to hurt, but so is the US and in more ways that imagined.
I hope he doesn’t put a tariff on Canadian crude oil.
Along with hydro-generated electricity from Hydro Quebec. Goodness knows, we don’t have any kind of shortage of power in our grids!
The original 25% tariff on Canada included a “carve-out” for much needed oil imports.
“Trump will fix it.”
On repeat in my brain to the sound of internal maniacal laughter
Whether it’s pretend or not, seems to me a very significant part of whatever Mar-A-Lardo/Musk are doing is setting up toll booths, and tariffs are especially lucrative ones because tolls can be collected on both sides of the booth coming into the US. Hey Canada and Mexico, want to avoid tariffs? Pay me. Hey US importers and consumers – notwithstanding that you’re not even paying the tariffs – would you still like to avoid them with a special exemption? Pay me.
Before long, the con spreads to any or all government activities and regulation. Wanna finish that pipeline? Too expensive to dispose of that waste properly? Need that federal guarantee? How about a pardon or gold card, unfettered grazing rights, or maybe even a quick peek at some classified docs? I’m just gonna leave this empty suitcase here where you can reach it when you’re ready
We’ve already reached the point where he’s become so reckless or fact-averse that he is condemning his own actions. After relentlessly shitting all over NAFTA for years, you might recall he “fixed” it during his first term and, of course, renamed it the USMCA after his favorite gay conga line anthem. But now in his second term, when he recently announced the punitive tariffs on Mexico, he rationalized them by saying they were necessary to correct the very awful trade agreement we have with them. Which underscores the point of there being no rhyme or reason, nor facts, plans, or accountability. In other words, our master developer is fabricating the world’s most perfect kleptocratic sauna.
Well summarized. Of course he’s too arrogant to be able to understand that these trade partners can stop trading with us. Pain on both side for sure there, but midterms are 20 months away.
Perhaps our neighbors can convince the right wing cult that Trump is bad for them. Obviously we’re too close to the problem to solve it.
They cannot do the heavy lifting for us. We have to lift here first. We created this or ignored it until it became reality. They did not have this luxury. Therefore we have to pay. There is an antidote, that of kindness, compassion, fairness and human decency. We apply those with a high degree of pressure and fascism will wither before it takes full root.
Watch for signs that tariff revenue will be used to “pay for” tax cuts. That would make said tariffs quasi-permanent.
H-Man, what happens to a populist when there are no believers?
Any number of populists have endured this fate. Mussolini is the one I think of most. They could not humiliate him after he was dead but they undertook a great degree of effort to spit or otherwise desecrate his body after he was killed. .
Canada, Mexico, and the rest of our trading partners should see this exercise as similar to training a dog, since they are dealing with someone who has roughly the intelligence and attention span of a dog. If Trump schedules tariffs, then the trading partner implements their own (pre-decided) measures on a schedule–with no possibility for retraction before 90 days. At the 90 day period, there is a 7 day assessment period. If the US measures are not removed, then measures continue for 180 days, no possibility for retraction. Actions and threats have immediate and unavoidable consequences. The measures include a complete ban on Meta, X, and Florida citrus. Canadians are encouraged to switch permanently to BlueSky or a Canadian-specific public utility social media platform. No exports of any energy products to the US will be allowed (trade with other partners can be increased to compensate). The tariff on Tesla products is 200% (300% for cybertrucks). Canada will stop purchasing US military aircraft and will join the Eurofighter program. Canadian airlines will be forbidden from purchasing Boeing products, and will instead support the domestic Bombardier manufacturer and Airbus.
Europe, Canada and Mexico should unite with free trade, leaving out the US.
For someone who campaigned on reducing government regulations (which I generally agree with), tariffs are the exact opposite of that (what a moron- this isn’t 1910, or whatever “tariff glory year” he keeps referring to).
Finally, any country that is currently on the receiving end of Trumpie’s tarrif rage knows that Trump has to stop this nonsense in time for the US to recover enough in advance of midterm elections so that voters aren’t still angry over tariffs when they vote in midterms (so, in short order).
Unfortunately, US people, US economy and US stock market might likely be collateral damage from these shenanigans.
Too bad I didn’t go to cash a few weeks ago.
There were no tariff glory years, only gory years, I can still hear Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller’s day off “it did not work, and the United States sank further into the Great Depression”. From that purview, assuming Trump proceeds with and then digs his heels into his beloved tariffs, it’s not too late to get into cash. I bought some bonds as well because I assume when things start blowing up he’s going to use his unquestioned power to make changes at the Fed and force interest rate cuts, because the man is a moron and doesn’t understand how anything works.
+1 You managed to take my mind momentarily off doom and gloom! I love a good 80s reference but cracked up that this was a takeaway from Ferris Bueller for you. I had to refresh myself but it is a great scene, especially to anyone who could actually understand what he was saying. But there is a backstory that Stein improvised the scene using his econ background. Funny that he said the student actors had no idea about or interest in anything he was saying, as if it were a foreign language. And maybe explains why some people believe the stock market went down under Biden.
https://www.tiktok.com/@erinkaufmann/video/7302310095680195886