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The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings
Nvidia suffered a rocky -- albeit not exactly disastrous -- post-earnings trade on Thursday, when th
Your last sentence sums it up nicely.
Each new greatest LLM is bring less & less improvement for a greater & greater cost. Now it is time to see commercial end users (beyond coders) benefiting enough to pay to use it. The Salesforce experience with their agents is not very encouraging but it’s early yet.
I am taking UNDER on these Capex numbers – and am as comfortable as can be.
I’m not a mega-fan of polls and surveys, but if this one is even partly right it suggests that AI use in most real world businesses will not be an overnight sensation. And a reminder that coding and call centers are not a major portion of the overall economy.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/most-us-workers-dont-use-ai-at-work-yet-this-study-suggests-a-reason-why/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_12759717
Curious if anyone here uses AI at work in a significant way? And for what, specifically?
I use AI at work constantly. I am a coder, but I don’t use it just for coding. You can ask AI to get a sense of what ppl are working on based on ticketing systems, you can have it generate a podcast to tell you who is doing what.
When I have a new technical project, I ask AI the best way to get it done.
It’s absolutely incredible.
There is a very useful discussion of the point you make in your last paragraph found in H.Igor Ansoff’s insightful book: Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice-Hall International,1984, Section 2.2.2, pp 40-44. The top graph on p 41 illustrates the demand cycle curve for what may be called “turbulent technologies.” The envelope curve refers to the overall demand for products which are long-lasting but over time have been produced with a number of different technologies. Radio, for example began in the late 1800s. The first radio transmitters and receivers where based on simple crystal technology. Now a radio system can be microscopically small contained on a chip in an Apple watch.
The lower graph represents the demand curve for a “fertile technology.” These types of technologies can be used in myriad products. Total demand will be driven by the number of applications of the tech, eg. chips, transistors, etc. The most desirable investments will typically be found on the upper curves. AI is very probably a fertile technology so the best investments will probably be made in those who develop and produce the technology. There will be thousands of uses for AI and few of them will produce more revenue than the tech used to facilitate each individual applications. On the other hand, the tech will evolve over time and get cheaper as production increases, so perhaps complex value-added applications will produce more value than the tech itself. You can see how difficult it is to find the best way to go.